Hi, folks. I have a lot on my plate all of a sudden, but I’m not finished with Wimbledon 2015. There is more to be said. A lot of the stuff gets covered in comments and I enjoy the conversation as always with you guys. But we now have a long stretch before us before the next Masters in Montreal and I’d like to keep the conversation going. I really wish my blog would always be as busy as during the slams but, unfortunately, that’s not possible. Hopefully, some people will at least stay interested in the discussion.
- Where Does Federer Go From Here?
In my last post, I ran out of time before I could talk about what is ahead for Federer. I think he played extremely well against Murray which should give Fedfans lots of hope. I’m not saying he will win another slam, but as the world #2 surely he still has a chance. Who else than Djokovic can currently win slams? Probably Federer, Murray, and Stan. Federer just destroyed Murray, but that was on grass. Murray will probably have a much better shot on any other surface.
We can’t forget what happened at the French Open either where Stan in turn destroyed Federer. The problem for Federer is his age and physical decline. Stan and Murray don’t suffer from that problem. They will probably both outlast Federer in a long best-of-five set match. The other problem for Federer is consistency. His form can drop in which case he can play a long five set match that tires him for the remaining rounds, or worse yet he could lose. For instance against Seppi at the Australian Open.
That said, I still wouldn’t count him out for the US Open. I think he is playing better than last year, but he needs to avoid a match like the one against Monfils last year. In slams these days he should try not to go more than four sets before the final. Otherwise, it takes too much energy. And for that to happen he must be able to shorten points. Wimbledon is still the fastest slam surface and provides him with the most assistance to shorten points and dominate opponents.
Can Fedberg still pull it off?
At the US Open, players can already extend the rallies for longer and get into matches. For this reason, I see him more as a dark horse there. He needs a good draw and to get through early rounds easily. Last year he had what you could call a good draw but then ran into a red-hot Cilic. I don’t think he will run into a red-hot Cilic this year, but Cilic is a guy who could, for instance, give him a long match and drain his energy. Many others could do it too like Berdych, Tsonga, Monfils, Nishikori, Raonic, Simon, Nadal, Kyrgios, etc.
Federer is ranked #2 in the world, but that’s not really the case in slams. Wimbledon is the only slam where he was the second best player in the world in the last couple of years. The last time Federer made a slam final outside of Wimbledon was in 2011 at Roland Garros. The last time he was in the US Open final was in 2009. Those stats tell a story of their own. He has been very consistent outside of the slams lately which has given him the #2 ranking, but it is slightly misleading.
At least it is at the slams. In the last five years, aside from Djokovic and Nadal, both Murray and Stan have won more slams than him. I’m not counting Federer out at the US Open this year, but he will almost definitely get a tougher draw than last year. For me, his best chance at #18 is still at Wimbledon and Djokovic seems to have the title booked there for the next few years. He already beat Federer more routinely this year as opposed to last year, and next time it will probably be straight sets.
- Why All the Hype?
I talked about this in the comments too, but why all the hype every time someone wins a slam? Now people all of a sudden have Djokovic chasing down Federer and winning 20 slams. Wtf?! Did they already forget what happened at the French Open when they hyped him to complete the career slam? What about the people who were talking about the calendar slam? Since when does that become likely after someone won the first slam of the year? The hype just gets old.
There is no guarantee Djokovic will even win the US Open. I would say he is the favorite, but it doesn’t guarantee anything. Can’t people just appreciate what he did for what it is? He is now tied with Mcenroe and Becker for the third most Wimbledon titles in the open era. Pre-2011 who would have dreamed that Djokovic would win three Wimbledon titles? He is now a grass court legend of the game. This was also his ninth grand slam title which puts him ahead of legends like Lendl and Connors.
It’s clear who has the moves here…
At the beginning of the year he won a record fifth Australian Open to become the slow hard court GOAT. And to back that honor up he won a third Indian Wells/Miami double – the first man to ever do so.What he has already achieved in the sport is extraordinary. Why are people so obsessed with the future? Probably he will never catch up with Federer. But it’s not out of the question that he could catch Nadal. He has five slams to go and probably bout 2-3 more years to rack up slams.
I like his chances at the US Open, but failing there wouldn’t be the worst thing because that will make him desperate to win a sixth Australian Open. And that is the one place where is he almost guaranteed a slam. But the big one remains the French Open for him to complete the career slam. Once he wins that it puts him in another bracket. Then he’d be in the conversation with Nadal and Borg. There is no doubt he missed some chances from 2012-2013 where he won only one slam per year.
The biggest setback was the 2013 French Open semi-final with Nadal. Had he won that he would 99% sure have won the US Open that year too. He even lost at the Australian Open the next year. That French Open loss was a big setback but I think it made him stronger. I like his attitude. In his final Wimbledon presser he said everything happens for a reason when asked about the French Open this year. And look how well he has bounced back from that. Three titles in his last five slams and he is completely dominating again like in 2011.
Who knows where he can take it from here. I am just grateful to be a part of it because I actually really like his game and character. I think he is in a good place and very confident but we will see where he takes it from here. It’s not always neccessary to hype players to appreciate them. It is good enough to appreciate what they are busy with. I guess we are in an era where we have been spoiled. After Djokovic who can actually win 10+ slams? We better appreciate it while it happens.
The is in your court.