US Open Draw

[1]Djokovic vs Q
Riba vs Berlocq
Starace vs Berrer
Davydenko vs [32]Dodig

[22]Dolgopolov vs Gil
Nishikori vs Cipolla
Karlovic vs F.Gonzalez
Stakhovsky vs [13]Gasquet

[9]Berdych vs Q
Fognini vs Zeballos
Petzschner vs Ramos
Q vs [20]Tipsarevic

[31]Granollers vs Malisse
Kukushkin vs Montanes
Andujar vs Ferrero
Dimitrov vs [7]Monfils

—————-

[3]Federer vs Giraldo
Sela vs Bellucci
Q vs Tomic
Harrison vs [27]Cilic

[23]Stepanek vs Kohlschreiber
Monaco vs Seppi
Haas vs Q
Falla vs [15]Troicki

[11]Tsonga vs Lu
Haider-Maurer vs Q
Q vs Q
Nieminen vs [19]Verdasco

[29]Llodra vs Hanescu
Anderson vs Q
Q vs de Bakker
Kamke vs [8]Fish

—————-

[6]Soderling vs Qualifier
Bogomolov Jr. vs Johnson
Ginepri vs Q
Baghdatis vs [28]Isner

[18]Del Potro vs Volandri
Junqueira vs K.Beck
Garcia-Lopez vs Gimeno-Traver
Mello vs [12]Simon

[14]Wawrinka vs M.Gonzalez
Young vs Q
Tursunov vs Darcis
Matosevic vs [24]Chela

[25]F.Lopez vs Ito
Q vs Rosol
Machado vs Haase
Devvarman vs [4]Murray

—————-

[5]Ferrer vs Andreev
Blake vs Q
Rochus vs Q
Mannarino v [26]F.Mayer

[21]Roddick vs Russell
Sock vs Gicquel
Istomin vs Sweeting
Benneteau v [10]Almagro

[16]Youzhny v Gulbis
Roger-Vasselin vs Muller
Bachinger vs Kunitsyn
Prodon vs [17]Melzer

[30]Ljubicic vs Kavcic
Reynolds vs Nalbandian
Mahut vs Q
Golubev vs [2]Nadal

http://www.usopen.org/en_US/scores/draws/ms/index.html?promo=subnav

 

Well no real surprises here. Roger is in Djokovic’s half for the 13th time out of the last 14 slams! The funny thing is that they did the draw out of a cup, so it’s hard to see how it can be fixed. I don’t know if they do it this way in all the slams, but it is just highly unlikely that they would be in the same side of the draw so often without outside interference. I still think the organizers feel that a Fedal final would be the best for TV ratings and therefore they have an incentive to fix the draw. There is no proof though so you would have to make up your own mind. Roger’s draw looks pretty tough. He should be OK in the first two rounds, but then he could get Cilic, Harrison, or Tomic. After that Stepanek or Troicki, and in the quarters it gets really tough as he gets Fish or Tsonga. I’m hoping it’s not Tsonga since he beat Roger the last two times, but Fish has been on fire of late as well.

I don’t want to look past the quarters because looking at Roger’s current form I’d be surprised if he makes semis. It will be hard enough to make quarters, never mind passing it against the likes of Fish or Tsonga. At least Roger got a couple of decent wins against Del Potro and Blake in Cincy, and hopefully he can build on that in the earlier rounds of the US Open. The US Open is the slam where he has had the most consistent results over the years and it would be a mistake to count him out. I just think his form in Montreal and Cincy was terrible and I don’t want to set myself up for disappointment. We have seen at the French Open he can still make deep runs in slams, but then he has to look confident from the start. Somehow I doubt he is just going to show up in New York with loads of confidence.

Of the top four Roger has the toughest draw, at a time when he’s confidence is maybe at it’s lowest. So I don’t have many expectations. Murray and Djokovic have similarly average draws while Nadal has the easiest draw. Again, not much of a surprise there. Roger could really have used the draw Nadal has. An easy path to the semis is just what he needed. Nadal is low in confidence like Roger and I’m sure he will be very happy with the cards he has been dealt. I doubt Nadal can win the event even with that easy draw though. I’d be surprised if he makes the final. The clear favorite for the title is obviously Djokovic who has completely dominated 2011. The only question mark is his fitness, but he had this week off and will probably be fine. The top four are once again the favorites for the title while the dark horses are probably Fish, Tsonga, and even Del Potro.

In other news, I am sure you have heard about Hurricane Irene which is forecast to hit New York soon and it looks like it could do a lot of damages. I hope that everyone will be safe first of all, but also that it won’t cause too much of a delay at the Open. Flushing Meadows is at sea level I think and there could be floods. So let’s hope it won’t spoil the US Open too much. My best wishes to New York and it’s people.

Roger Federer

 

Posted in Grand Slams, US Open.

16 Comments

  1. Good analysis.
    Federer must somehow get through the first rounds quickly if wants a chance at the semi. Tsonga is the most dangerous player for him in his quarter because he’s currently very confident against him (Tsonga knows he can win, even in best of 5 match). However, I have a feeling Tsonga won’t get that far so if Federer would get to the quarter he would also make it to the semi.
    From there it’s going to be very difficult…
    Good luck, anyway.

    [Reply]

    Ru-an Reply:

    Thanks TD. Yeah I think Fish has a better chance of making quarters and Roger should have a better chance against him, although he is a tough opponent too.

    [Reply]

  2. I think it’ll be better if Federer faces Tsonga again. He desperately needs a win of vital importance. Either way it’ll be difficult. I slightly give Fish the upper hand.

    [Reply]

    George Reply:

    To me, Fish is currently the hottest player on the ATP Tour, and I really enjoy watching him play his attacking tennis; he really played some dazzling tennis during last month in Montreal and Cincy and the way I see him now, he’ll probably be in exceptional form for the US Open. I can see him even as a finalist, with the tennis he plays now he can get past Tsonga, Federer and Djokovic in style. Hope Fed proves me wrong.

    [Reply]

    TD Reply:

    Fish is an excellent player which raises his game level during the summer US events (He reached Cincy final last year as well). However, he still has a barrier of winning an important match against the top guys, especially in a grand slam. In that sense, Federer is his best chance of the top 4 nowadays (but I still don’t see it happen).

    [Reply]

    George Reply:

    True, he hasn’t beat a top player in a slam but he did win the match against Nadal in Cincinnati, pretty easily I’d say since it was a straight-set win. But then again that doesn’t mean it would be the same case in Flushing Meadows where Nadal (and Fed I hope) are gonna raise their game level. Having said that, I myself am desperate for a Fedal USO final which would be their first encounter in New York and the second one in hard courts overall (in slams). But this is way too early to discuss about a potential Fedal final I suppose.

    [Reply]

    marron Reply:

    Given their past history, I’d think the average Fed fan wouldn’t want a Fedal final in New York. Me, I wouldn’t mind, as I do think Rafa would prevail.

    But one never knows.

    [Reply]

    George Reply:

    That’s exactly what I’m talking about, they have no history in hard courts in slams except for the AO 2009. It’s a shame that these two players haven’t met at USO and AO in a hardcourt era. Besides, their AO final was a fantastic match (probably the best they’ve ever played along with Wimbledon 08) which Fed should never have lost, he was way better than Nadal in my opinion. Anyway, my point here is that a hard court match between Federer and Nadal is likely to be their most amazing encounter, as hardcourts seem to give us more spectacular matches than any other surface in general.

    Just imagine the ESPN previews should they meet in the final…I remember when they made tons of videos in Australia, the most epic rivarly ever.

    [Reply]

    David C. Reply:

    If Roger is going to beat Rafa in a major from now on, the US Open is probably the best bet, especailly if Fed gets to play first in the semi-final and has an easy match while Nadal played a long match in the 2nd double-header. But either way, I think Fed has a good shot should he meet Nadal in the final. We shall see.

    [Reply]

  3. As far as the draw goes, it’s interesting to point out as far as the seeding goes — out of the last 14 slams, there’s been seven 1-3 / 2-4 halves and seven 1-4 / 2-3 halves. For example, at the first three slams of 2011 Rafa was #1 seed and drew #4 Murray. Now Djokovic is #1 and drew #3 Fed.

    Funny that they should fall where they have, but nevertheless, not impossible. This randomness is supposed to help change up the opponents, but instead, it hasn’t helped at all.

    [Reply]

  4. If Federer can get past Cilic in the 3rd and Tsonga in the QF, I believe he will make it to the Final (Yes – after taking out Djokovic).

    Federer shouldn’t have a problem getting past Stepanek in the 4th.

    If someone else takes out Nadal (Soderling, Del Potro or Murray), and if Federer reaches the semis – I think he will beat Djokovic and win a Slam this year.

    Federer will reach the Final if:
    – Federer can get past Cilic and Tsonga.

    Federer will win the US Open if:
    – Nadal is eliminated before the Finals.

    That’s my prediction for you guys!!

    [Reply]

  5. I agree Roger isn’t looking good. Trying to be optimistic for a second I think if he could put together a few dominating wins in the early rounds he can build some confidence that way. It depends if his serve is clicking or not, if it is I think he will feel good and maybe be able to rely on that mentally to help push him through.

    The other factor is he does always bring it for the slams. Not saying he tanked Cincy or that his form wasn’t good (though he showed some flashed of great form in the Del Potro match and that was an important win for him). I just think he is tougher to beat in the slams than in other finals and hopefully that will give him a little edge.

    Lastly maybe with the pressure really off (a bit like the French Open, but more so-nobody is expecting him to do well here), he can surprise. I think the pressure off him in the FO really helped him, there too, nobody expected him to get very far.

    We’ll see. I am still passionately rooting for him. There’s something very decent about Fish, but his game still has nowhere near the artistry and genius of Fed. He’s the one other top 10 player that I actually like and respect. If it isn’t Fed I hope he goes all the way. Fed proved Djokovic is beatable (though ironically not be Nadal, he’s too far in his head and Nadal has no useful weapon against Djokovic).

    [Reply]

  6. I think I think Federer is going to go all out at the U.S. Open. No one is a sure thing this year but Federer hasn’t won anything all year and I’m quite certain he must feel pretty hungry for a win. I checked the betting on Federer and he is still a top five favorite to win. Federer doesn’t need hope, he needs to get his head out of his ass and win at all costs.

    [Reply]

    david Reply:

    http://www.atpworldtour.com/News/DEUCE-Tennis/DEUCE-US-Open-2011/Roger-Federer.aspx
    Good article about Federer.

    [Reply]

  7. The US Open probably requires more luck than any of the Slams lately due to the crappy scheduling. If Roger can make it to the semis, he needs to win his semifinal in 3 sets and hope the other one goes a tough 5 sets. Going first would also be a gigantic advantage but I don’t see that happening unless Djokovic loses before the semis.

    [Reply]

  8. Our biggest hurdle may not be beating Djokovic but hoping Nadal loses on the opposite side of the draw. If you remember last years semi’s Nadal won in three easy sets and the thought of losing yet another grand slam final to Nadal but have seriously weighed heavy on Federer. At this level even the slightest doubt can be enough to win you a match and I think that was ultimately the reason Federer squandered those two match points. Nadal has his usual cake walk of a draw so this won’t help matters but we can always hope. At the end of the day Nadal will be known as the best clay courter of all time where Federer will be known as the greatest player to ever wield a tennis racket, which title would you rather have?

    [Reply]

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