TEB BNP Paribas Istanbul Open 2015 Draw

 

Howdy, folks. A lot of discussions and entertainment on my blog as usual so thanks for that. Next week is the inaugural tournament for Istanbul and today the draw was released. Roger is, of course, the top seed while his clone Dimitrov is the second seed. This is probably the weakest ATP 250 I have ever laid my eyes upon, and I’m 100% serious when I say that. I can’t remember seeing a weaker draw. I guess they offered Roger 100% of the appearance fees available while Dimitrov did it just to play in the same event as Roger.

  • A Must Win Situation

That is how desperate he is to be like Roger and why he is still losing 6-3, 6-1 to Monfils in Monte Carlo. The third seed in Istanbul is Cuevas while Giraldo is the fourth seed, so really there is not much room for error for Roger here. Anything less than a title would be a failure if we are being honest. After what happened in Monte Carlo it is a good opportunity to set the record straight because it is a weak event and a title is a title. But like I said the flip side of that is that he has to win it.

Even if he loses in the final it would look like another failure. There was quite a lot expected of Roger after winning Dubai and making the Indian Wells final. The Monte Carlo loss was a setback, not necessarily because Roger lost but the way he lost. Losing in straight sets to Monfils after being 5-3 up in the second set tie-break with a serve to come reminded of the Roger that lost in Melbourne to Seppi. If he wins Istanbul then that would kind of cancel out the loss in Monte Carlo and he can go to Madrid and Rome with a clean slate.

  • Nishikori On Fire in Barcelona

As for Barcelona today Nishikori destroyed Klizan 6-1, 6-2 who is a player I happen to have a lot of respect for. I also watched that match and Nishikori was on fire. He will play Andujar in the final who had a terrific 7-6(6), 6-3 win over Ferrer today. I watched some of that match too and Andujar did incredibly well to come back from 3-6 in the tie-break, and that after he lost his serve when serving for the first set at 6-5. So really a terrific mental effort from a player with a great attitude and that is always good to see.

The way Nishikori is playing though it looks like he will defend his title. If he does that he will also be just 110 points behind Nadal in the rankings. Then it is Madrid where Nadal will defend the title and Nishikori a final. Madrid is high altitude where the balls fly and that does not help Nadal in his current predicament. If Nadal doesn’t make at least the final there he will fall several places in the rankings. It looks likely now that he will be ranked outside the top four for the French Open.

And, of course, that means he will play Djokovic, Roger, Murray, or Nishikori in the quarters. I think Nadal already wants to avoid Nishikori in his quarter in Madrid. He looks very good right now and could easily defeat Nadal with the form he is in. Either way things will get interesting if Nadal is ranked outside the top four in Paris, which looks likely. Who knows, Roger may even get a very rare opportunity to play Nadal in the quarters there while Nadal is at his most fragile…

The  is in your court.

Posted in ATP 250, Istanbul.

12 Comments

  1. Do you think RG will change Rafa’s seeding if he’s ranked outside top 4 ?

    I mean, wimbledon has it’s own rules for determining the seeds but not sure about rg tho

    If nole vs rafa happens in quarterfinal it’s gonna be end of the tournament right there

    [Reply]

    Ru-an Reply:

    No I don’t think so. And neither should they imo. It’s Nadal’s own problem if he falls below top 4. Then he deserves a tough draw. Hopefully vs the Djoker or Kei in the QF.

    [Reply]

  2. Above it says 6-3, 6-1 in Monte- Carlo against Monfils.

    [Reply]

    Ru-an Reply:

    Who though? If you read carefully you will see I was talking about Dmitrov.

    [Reply]

    Dave Reply:

    Tired from a long ride from Los Angeles. I misunderstood. “Wow”!

    [Reply]

  3. Hey I’m curious why you think Dimitrov wants to be like Fed?

    Yes it would be interesting to see Fed play Nadal in quarters at French. Or play against each other given their forms

    [Reply]

    Ru-an Reply:

    Isn’t it obvious? There are too many things to list.

    [Reply]

  4. I have to disagree with the “needs to win the tournament” argument, as lately Roger seems to have lost some of his famous consistency but in exchange is doing better in big matches. To be honest I’d rather he did badly in the Masters 1000s and below (unless they are ones he hasn’t won before or have some personal value to him), in exchange for better performances at the slams. I would like to see a Roger-Rafa match on clay again though, because finally Roger has no expectations. I noticed that if you look at his clay court results against Rafa after 2009 when he won the FO, he seems more liberated and swinging freely against him, so if he has a good day he could still beat him.

    Sorry for this wall of text :-)

    [Reply]

    Ru-an Reply:

    Thanks for the feedback Charlie. You are right it’s not the end of the world if Roger does not win the tourney. I just think after what happened in MC he needs a boost of confidence, and he will only get that if he wins the tourney. As far as big matches go his consistency was good in slams last year but the third round loss at the AO this year was another setback. Now I’m not sure if he has the fitness anymore to win seven best-of-five-set matches. His level is good enough to win events like Shanghai and Cincinnati. But it’s doubtful now whether he can keep that level over a fortnight over five sets. Wimbledon last year may have been his last big chance to win a slam, but it would be wrong to write him off. We will see. The window of opportunity is closing, but maybe he has one more shot at Wimby this year.

    [Reply]

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