No doubt the latest article by Simon Reed will be very pleasing to read for many a Fedfan. For those who don’t know much about Mr. Reed anyway. If you put ‘Simon Reed’ into Google you will find an article written by yours truly way back in 2009. Reed is notorious for making nonsensical predictions, and when he is inevitably proved wrong he is called the ultimate jinxer by the superstitious ones. But as all ‘magical’ things, it can be explained away with a dose of proper logic. If you keep making predictions that makes no sense then guess what? You are gonna keep getting it wrong and people will cal you a jinxer. It doesn’t make you a jinxer however, it just makes you a bad predictor who disregards facts. Calling Roger the favorite to win the Australian Open will not seem very absurd at first. I mean he is after all one of the favorites.
Reed is subtle in this way. He makes predictions that could come true, but they are unlikely to happen. And then people are surprised that he gets it wrong on such a regular basis. It’s not rocket science. It’s like betting on bad odds repeatedly and getting it wrong all the time. As you know I am a very realistic Fedfan. I have never tried to hype up Roger’s chances just to get more page views or keep people interested in my blog. It is easy to be tempted to do that as Roger’s career winds down, but integrity is more important to me, and besides Roger is so popular that comparatively few people really loses interest since he is winning less. Winning should not be everything anyway. In many ways I see myself as the opposite of Simon Reed. I like to think that I am pretty good at predictions because I try to think logically about things and not with my emotions.
For me Mr. Reed is the writer with the least integrity that I have ever come across. He doesn’t have any relationship whatsoever with his readers. He seems to write impulsively whatever he feels like writing in the moment, leaving his readers confused and uninformed. If you don’t believe me then just go through his articles and read the comments. People are constantly calling for him to get fired by Eurosport, but what does he care? He gets paid and gets to write whatever ‘feels’ like the right thing at the moment. It’s a win-win situation for him. I don’t like the fact that Reed calls Roger the favorite to win in Melbourne. Not because I believe in jinxing but because it creates pressure and expectation. Again I am the opposite of Reed. I’d rather downplay Roger’s chances and see him fly under the radar.
Of course Roger has a chance to win the thing, but he is not the favorite. Djokovic has won twice in Melbourne now, he loves the surface, and he rightfully carries the favorite tag after becoming world number one and winning three out of four majors last year. Roger is not the best in the world anymore. He is not even second best. He is third best. It is now Djokovic’s turn to carry the burden of being the favorite and Simon Reed has no right to take it away from him and put it back on Roger. The truth is Djokovic is the favorite. He looked great in the exho which he was taking seriously and he is simply very tough to beat in Melbourne these days. Roger on the other hand is not even physically 100% at this point. He may even develop back problems again in Melbourne, as he doesn’t have much time to rest.
Calling him the favorite is just wrong. It will be more like a surprise if he wins, and if he does not go on to win in Melbourne then Reed’s title as a jinxer will be in tact. But know for sure that not winning in Melbourne will not have a single thing to do with Reed’s ‘jinxing’. I just want to make that clear. Reed has absolutely no ability whatsoever to influence the outcome of any tennis match. If Roger loses it will be because he was never the favorite to begin with, not because he was jinxed. I happen to not mind the fact that Roger is struggling a bit with injury right now. It makes people expect less of him, and I’m not gonna let Reed spoil that for me. If Roger was 100% healthy and went on to win Doha, then everyone would have called him the favorite again like last year. I don’t want that. I want the pressure of expectation to be on Djokovic and for Roger to prove people wrong.
Of late he has been at his best when the expectations were low for him. I think that is because he doesn’t appreciate being counted out. He feels like he wants to prove people wrong. If he is the favorite then we have seen of late how his motivation can suffer. When Simon Reed says he expects Roger to come very close to his dominant best of four or five years ago I’m sure many of you felt inspired. I’m not here to dampen your spirits. I’m merely trying to be realistic. If you like to believe that Roger will get back to his prime level and it makes you feel good then be my guest. I’m not trying to tell anyone how to be a Fedfan. But don’t complain if you get disappointed either. Personally I have nothing to lose. If Roger returns to his prime level then I will be delighted. If he does not and win one lucky slam then I will be happy too.
And if he wins nothing then I won’t be too disappointed either. He has after all achieved all the most important things I wanted him to. Like you I hope Reed is right, but to hang your hat on anything he predicts is doing it at your own peril. Reed has been proved wrong on such a consistent basis that you just can’t afford to do that. Just a few articles ago he made a post called ‘Djokovic the greatest player I have ever seen‘ and ‘Don’t get carried away with Federer resurgence‘ just after his impressive indoor season. So now Djokovic is the GOAT after he only won four slams and he is suddenly more optimistic about Roger’s chances after he gets injured in Doha, as opposed to when he won three straight tournaments. That should already give you an idea just of how fickle this Simon Reed is. May Roger prove even Reed’s infamous ‘jinxing’ powers wrong and win Down Under.
Here is a video of Roger hitting on Rod Laver Arena. Sweet drop volley.