Simon Reed Calls Federer Favorite for Australian Open

http://uk.eurosport.yahoo.com/blogs/simon-reed/federer-kvitova-thrive-australia-154948901.html

No doubt the latest article by Simon Reed will be very pleasing to read for many a Fedfan. For those who don’t know much about Mr. Reed  anyway. If you put ‘Simon Reed’ into Google you will find an article written by yours truly way back in 2009. Reed is notorious for making  nonsensical predictions, and when he is inevitably proved wrong he is called the ultimate jinxer by the superstitious ones. But as all ‘magical’ things, it can be explained away with a dose of proper logic. If you keep making predictions that makes no sense then guess what? You are gonna keep getting it wrong and people will cal you a jinxer. It doesn’t make you a jinxer however, it just makes you a bad predictor who disregards facts. Calling Roger the favorite to win the Australian Open will not seem very absurd at first. I mean he is after all one of the favorites.

Reed is subtle in this way. He makes predictions that could come true, but they are unlikely to happen. And then people are surprised that he gets it wrong on such a regular basis. It’s not rocket science. It’s like betting on bad odds repeatedly and getting it wrong all the time. As you know I am a very realistic Fedfan. I have never tried to hype up Roger’s chances just to get more page views or keep people interested in my blog. It is easy to be tempted to do that as Roger’s career winds down, but integrity is more important to me, and besides Roger is so popular that comparatively few people really loses interest since he is winning less. Winning should not be everything anyway. In many ways I see myself as the opposite of Simon Reed. I like to think that I am pretty good at predictions because I try to think logically about things and not with my emotions.

For me Mr. Reed is the writer with the least integrity that I have ever come across. He doesn’t have any relationship whatsoever with his readers. He seems to write impulsively whatever he feels like writing in the moment, leaving his readers confused and uninformed. If you don’t believe me then just go through his articles and read the comments. People are constantly calling for him to get fired by Eurosport, but what does he care? He gets paid and gets to write whatever ‘feels’ like the right thing at the moment. It’s a win-win situation for him. I don’t like the fact that Reed calls Roger the favorite to win in Melbourne. Not because I believe in jinxing but because it creates pressure and expectation. Again I am the opposite of Reed. I’d rather downplay Roger’s chances and see him fly under the radar.

Of course Roger has a chance to win the thing, but he is not the favorite. Djokovic has won twice in Melbourne now, he loves the surface, and he rightfully carries the favorite tag after becoming world number one and winning three out of four majors last year. Roger is not the best in the world anymore. He is not even second best. He is third best. It is now Djokovic’s turn to carry the burden of being the favorite and Simon Reed has no right to take it away from him and put it back on Roger. The truth is Djokovic is the favorite. He looked great in the exho which he was taking seriously and he is simply very tough to beat in Melbourne these days. Roger on the other hand is not even physically 100% at this point. He may even develop back problems again in Melbourne, as he doesn’t have much time to rest.

Calling him the favorite is just wrong. It will be more like a surprise if he wins, and if he does not go on to win in Melbourne then Reed’s title as a jinxer will be in tact. But know for sure that not winning in Melbourne will not have a single thing to do with Reed’s ‘jinxing’. I just want to make that clear. Reed has absolutely no ability whatsoever to influence the outcome of any tennis match. If Roger loses it will be because he was never the favorite to begin with, not because he was jinxed. I happen to not mind the fact that Roger is struggling a bit with injury right now. It makes people expect less of him, and I’m not gonna let Reed spoil that for me. If Roger was 100% healthy and went on to win Doha, then everyone would have called him the favorite again like last year. I don’t want that. I want the pressure of expectation to be on Djokovic and for Roger to prove people wrong.

Of late he has been at his best when the expectations were low for him. I think that is because he doesn’t appreciate being counted out. He feels like he wants to prove people wrong. If he is the favorite then we have seen of late how his motivation can suffer. When Simon Reed says he expects Roger to come very close to his dominant best of four or five years ago I’m sure many of you felt inspired. I’m not here to dampen your spirits. I’m merely trying to be realistic. If you like to believe that Roger will get back to his prime level and it makes you feel good then be my guest. I’m not trying to tell anyone how to be a Fedfan. But don’t complain if you get disappointed either. Personally I have nothing to lose. If Roger returns to his prime level then I will be delighted. If he does not and win one lucky slam then I will be happy too.

And if he wins nothing then I won’t be too disappointed either. He has after all achieved all the most important things I wanted him to. Like you I hope Reed is right, but to hang your hat on anything he predicts is doing it at your own peril. Reed has been proved wrong on such a consistent basis that you just can’t afford to do that. Just a few articles ago he made a post called ‘Djokovic the greatest player I have ever seen‘ and ‘Don’t get carried away with Federer resurgence‘ just after his impressive indoor season. So now Djokovic is the GOAT after he only won four slams and he is suddenly more optimistic about Roger’s chances after he gets injured in Doha, as opposed to when he won three straight tournaments. That should already give you an idea just of how fickle this Simon Reed is. May Roger prove even Reed’s infamous ‘jinxing’ powers wrong and win Down Under.

Here is a video of Roger hitting on Rod Laver Arena. Sweet drop volley.

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21 Comments

  1. Sure we have to ignore what media say.The media never brought luck to anyone, they just search sensational news.
    Let us concentrate on the positive and ignore the trash. Roger´s fate is on his racquet, not written in
    Simon Reed´s words!!!

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  2. Nooooo! Why did Simon Reed have to give Federer the kiss of death by picking him?

    Even before the injury I would say that at the most optimistic, he should be considered only co-favorite with Djokovic. Now, I’d say it would be foolish to pick Federer as the favorite, although he still has a good chance.

    It’s not clear how the back problem will affect him. In the past, persistent, long-lasting injuries have caused him to lose confidence in his movement and affect his ability to perform the precise footwork that lies at the foundation of his shotmaking skills.

    In late ’08-early ’09, when his chronic back issues flared up, he said afterwards that it was bad enough to actually alter his service motion, and he had to spend time retraining himself to perform the correct motion.

    In spring ’10, the viral illness disrupted his training regimen and he became more vulnerable to injuries, which caused issues during the clay and grass seasons.

    This current back problem appears to be acute, so there hasn’t been time for that sort of thing to happen. Given his performance at the end of last year, he should still be in good form, assuming the back spasms aren’t too serious.

    C’mon Roger, break the curse of Reed and win Grand Slam #17!

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  3. So Reed decides to create sensation by putting Roger in the favourite column. He knows Roger has tons of fans who will read this article. You are right on many counts – back problems, age and Djoker’s form. Its quite a mountain for Roger to climb here.

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  4. I don’t follow what the mainstream media and/or the “Simon Reeds” of the world. It’s all hype and b.s. I hope that Fed’s health is in great shape and his motivation and confidence is still high and stays that way. I just want to concentrate on one game at a time and hope for the best. Roger is not the favourite and I would rather it be that way for less pressure on him. As far as Murray, Rafa and Djokovic are concerned, I wouldn’t be surprised if they all bow out before the semi-finals. That’s just my opinion.

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  5. SR is either a fool or it’s a deliberate act by Eurosport to create sensation, stir controversy, interest; and boy, have they succeeded! Anyone with mimimum tennis sense would find SR’s writing nonsensical and completely baseless. In this latest article, he didn’t even mention Fed’s injury which is the most glaring reason that Fed can’t even be considered second favourite now. Even the bookies adjusted their bets following Fed’s injury. So my conclusion is SR is a deliberate act by Eurosport to get cheap and sensational publicity. Anyway, Hi favourite blogger! How’s 2012 treating you so far?! Thanks for the CONTINUOUS posts. Wow! you are regular, Ru-an, really appreciate it and I just love love love your writing. Have been rather busy, no time to comment but I was so enjoying reading the comments. Welcome back, Neil! Like your upfront,sometimes cynical comments. These coupled with your relentless conviction that doping is happening in tennis makes your comments “lethal/compulsive” reading! Lol! You guys going back and forth, back and forth, wow! really entertained me. I say again, this has got to be the best blog – so many different opinions, hot arguements but still civil, level-headed and respectful. And I really admire how you are always able to defend/back up your opinions, Ru-an. Sometimes I read a response to your opinion and I’m thinking, “uh oh, how is Ru-an going to answer that?”. Next minute, I see you come up with a very good and logical answer. I really learn a lot from you guys. Our man is in town and I feel like lurking in and around the hotel he stays for a whole 24 hrs so I can catch him! Weather report from Melbourne : It has been hailing (yeah, hail! in the middle of summer!!) and raining this morning. Thank God by Monday, temps go up to the 30’s. Hope it stays hot so our man’s poor back would get better. Not good at all this injury but let’s keep the faith, stay positive and hope for the best. Go Rog!

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    Ru-an Reply:

    Nice to see you back Veronica. Hope everything is going well with your work. Yeah we have been having some good arguments. It’s all good fun and keeps things interesting. When I make a statement in my blog you bet I can back it up. I am not SR who makes nonsensical statements and then run away. Nice that you live in Melbourne. It was voted the best city to live in by viewers of a test cricket match recently. I’ve never been to Australia myself and would love to check it out. Maybe next year I can come watch the AO and then we can hook up there. One can dream :D

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    veronica Reply:

    Yeah, dream, Ru-an and come next year!!!!

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  6. Novak Djokovic is the favorite. Defending champion, world number 1, and in his prime. I don’t see how anyone else can be considered the favorite for this tournament. Federer has not won a slam in 2 years and Murray has never won a slam period.

    I would say Djokovic is the clear favorite, with Nadal and Federer behind him. Nadal is always dangerous in every slam and should always be considered a contender.
    Federer also stands as good a chance as Nadal if his back recovers enough…but I would still consider Djokovic and Nadal ahead of Federer as far as being a favorite goes.

    Murray, Tsonga, and Del Potro for me are players who have reasonable chances to go deep in the tournament…but I wouldn’t use the word “favorites.” The tournament will in all likelihood be won by someone in the top 3. The consistency of the top guys is just too much. 1 of them might lose early…but all 3 of them losing before the finals has never happened before.

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    FeddyBear Reply:

    booya i agree with you 100%.
    ND is the overwhelming favorite.
    Fed looked good on practice. i hope he gets an easy draw and have a smooth sail to semis.
    i hope for a Fed-Djoker final. maybe someone can take nadal out before the SF (Delpo? Tsonga?) coz i still think he is the toughest match up for fed.
    Ruan, great post, spot on. good job on calling out SR. he is so full of shit. i like your calculated approach.
    draw is on friday guys.

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  7. If Reeds wants to attract readership by creating sensationalism and controversy, he’s done a great job. And there’s no easier tournament to do that than this year’s AO, without really knowing the forms and conditions of #1 and 2 seeds…. Like many of you here and intelligent tennis fans elsewhere, I also see Reed’s ulterior motive in this predction….

    To hype the AO next week, the local cable TV here in Hong Kong broadcasted the 2007 Federer-Rodick semi the other day. The Australian commentator said something like this, “the best display of skills I’ve seen in the sport”. I was just as mesmerized as when I first saw the match.

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    Jiten Reply:

    Yes Kit. I have (re-)watched that particular match umpteen number of times. Some of Fed’s shots are just surreal. Nobody in this universe can replicate that.

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  8. I think its a shame that we are discussing a joker like Reed.
    We all know Fed is not at all the fav to win AO, having said that the least that we can expect is a SF appearance, anything above is I feel is a bonus.
    I also like it when Roger is under the radar and the focus is purely on opponent, like FO SF 2011, its games like these which gives Fed and Fed fans kickass satisfaction..

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  9. Hi there,

    really enjoy this blog. All the information here is quite interesting and makes you think.

    As for SR… well there is a firm possibility that the guy is a total nut…
    I am a great Fedfan but I’m also pretty realistic; Sure Fed has a good chance at this or any other slam, but no way is he the favorite.

    Of course I really wish him to win a major this year, especially because it would be a big f*** you to all the guys out theres saying that he’s old and stuff… I also am 30 and really think this is totally preposterous…

    All best,
    VAsco

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    Ru-an Reply:

    Agreed Vasco, 30 is young.

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  10. Federer is a 4-time champion in Australia so he will always be a very strong contender but in no way is he the favourite this year. Is there reason to question Djokovic based on the fact that this is new territory for him? Sure, but he still has the best chance of winning the thing. The courts are so slow that Roger must be at his best or else the other three stand a good chance of beating him. As for being 100% fit, he looked very good in his practice fitness-wise, and looked very aggressive from the backhand, which is a must.

    This Simon Reed sounds like an idiot. I don’t like idiots.

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  11. The AO draw is up:

    http://www.australianopen.com/en_AU/scores/draws/ms/r1s1.html

    Federer and Nadal are in the same half (correct me if I’m wrong, but I think this is the first time since RG 2005 this has happened).

    Federer’s quarter also has Del Potro (very dangerous), and Tomic and Fish, who are both potentially tricky. But he can meet only one of Del Potro and Fish.

    Tsonga is in Murray’s quarter. Nadal’s quarter contains no one particularly difficult; Berdych is the most threatening and he lacks the mental toughness to put away Nadal.

    Djokovic’s quarter has Ferrer but the chances of a repeat of the London match are slim.

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  12. Federer has a good first 3 opponents but will have some really tough matches against baseliners Dolgopolov, Del Potro, Nadal, and Djokovic. It is the toughest and most physically demanding draw you can get for your final 4 opponents. Del Potro on form is definitely more dangerous than Tsonga. It’ll be a matter of how Del Potro is playing. Either he loses early, or he does well. If he reaches the QF he is doing something right so we need to look out and be ready for what Del Potro brings to the table.

    Murray also has a tough draw. Nadal once again has the easiest draw. Djokovic has an average draw with the possibility of facing Raonic in the 4th round I believe.

    With this draw I definitely cannot consider Federer a very good favorite. Djokovic will comfortably reach the SF, where he gets to play Murray for the first time ever in a slam SF. It’s all shaping up nicely for Djokovic’s 5th slam and I would be surprised if he is not in the final and/or does not win it.

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