Miami Draw – Federer in Nadal’s Half

[1] Rafael Nadal vs Bye
Jeremy Chardy vs Kei Nishikori
Feli Lopez vs Richard Bearnkis
Bye vs [26] Juan Ignacio Chela

[21] Alexandr Dolgopolov vs Bye
Andreas Seppi vs Mischa Zverev
Teymuraz Gabashvili vs Daniel Brands
Bye vs [15] Jo-Wilfred Tsonga

[17] Nicolas Almagro vs Bye
Federico Gil vs Qualifier
Florian Mayer vs [WC] Ivo Karlovic
Bye vs [20] Albert Montanes

[28] Ernests Gulbis vs Bye
Carlos Berlocq vs [WC] Jack Sock
Adrian Mannarino vs Ruben Ramirez-Hidalgo
Bye vs [7] Tomas Berdych


[3] Roger Federer vs Bye
Fabio Fognini vs Radek Stepanek
Sergiy Stakhovsky vs Qualifier
Bye vs [32] Juan Monaco

[22] Marco Baghdatis vs Bye
Blaz Kavcic vs Qualifier
Pere Riba vs Yen-Hsun Lu
Bye vs [13] Mikhail Youzhny

[10] Jurgen Melzer vs Bye
Phillip Petzschner vs Florent Serra
Janko Tipsarevic vs Robin Haase
Bye vs [18] Marin Cilic

[25] Gilles Simon vs Bye
[WC] Ryan Harrison vs Qualifier
Pablo Cuevas vs Michael Berrer
Bye vs [8] Andy Roddick


[6] David Ferrer vs Bye
Qualifier vs Qualifier
Somdev Devvarman vs Potito Starace
Bye vs [31] Milos Raonic

[23] Michael Llodra vs Bye
Xavier Malisse vs Qualifier
Benjamin Becker vs Marcel Granollers
Bye vs [12] Stanislas Wawrinka

[14] Mardy Fish vs Bye
Julien Benneteau vs Daniel Gimeno-Traver
Ivan Ljubicic vs Qualifier
Bye vs [17] Richard Gasquet

[29] Phillip Kohlschreiber vs Bye
Juan Martin Del Potro vs Ricardo Mello
Ivan Dodig vs Andrey Golubev
Bye vs [4] Robin Soderling


[5] Andy Murray vs Bye
Victor Hanescu vs Qualifier
Santiago Giraldo vs Igor Andreev
Bye vs [30] John Isner

[24]Guillermo Garcia-Lopez vs Bye
Nikolay Davydenko vs Kevin Anderson
[WC] Bernard Tomic vs Pablo Andujar
Bye vs [9] Fernando Verdasco

[16] Viktor Troicki vs Bye
Tobias Kamke vs Qualifier
Jarkko Nieminen vs Mikhail Kukushkin
Bye vs [19] Sam Querrey

[27] Thomaz Bellucci vs Bye
Qualifier vs [WC] James Blake
Qualifier vs Denis Istomin
Bye vs [2] Novak Djokovic

http://www.atpworldtour.com/posting/2011/403/mds.pdf

Since Roger is now number three in the world, the first thing to look for is whether he is in Nadal or Djokovic’s half of the draw. It turns out that he is in Nadal’s half which makes me happy. Enough of these Federer/Djokovic matches, right? Roger and Nadal had similar scores against Djokovic in Indian Wells and I wouldn’t mind seeing them meet in Miami to see how they currently match up. Roger’s draw looks good, and I think he needs it given that the surface in Miami is even slower than Indian Wells. This makes it even harder for him to make the points short and play his first strike type tennis. The seeds in Roger’s quarter doesn’t look too menacing. He can potentially meet Monaco in the third round which will be a good match up for him. In the fourth round it is Youhzny or Baghdatis, and in the quarters he could meet his pigeon Roddick.

So I would say the draw has favored Roger and he has a good chance to make the semis again. Given the form Nadal is in and his draw, it looks like he will make the semis again and I will have my Fedal semis. Some people is tired of the rivalry but to me it stays an interesting rivalry and I would like to see if Roger can play attacking enough to make things hard for Nadal, as he did at the Masters Cup. It will be much harder in Miami however. The danger men Del Potro and Raonic is in the third quarter of the draw, where they will slug things out with Ferrer, Wawrinka, Gasquet, and Soderling for a place in the semi’s. Del Potro has been getting better with every tournament since his comeback and I won’t be surprised if it’s him again in the semis. If he keeps getting better he may even threaten Djokovic in the semis. And it does look like Djokovic will make semis again.

He is just on such a high right now that it is hard to see that not happening. He may even win the Indian Wells/Miami double. But nonetheless it will be interesting to see if any of the top favorites gets upset this time around. Of course I hope it is not Roger but at least his draw looks pretty decent. If Nadal or Djokovic gets upset it will provide a big opportunity for Roger to do better than semis or finals. Once again I would like to see Roger make at least semis and from there on we will see how things pan out. If he plays Nadal in the semis it will certainly not be an easy match for him but at least he will not have to face the possibility of losing to Djokovic four straight times. He will already have his hands full with Nadal and I doubt he would be thinking of a possible meeting with Djokovic in the final.

Do you think Roger can do one better this time, do the same, or fare worse?

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30 Comments

  1. Fedal will restore order very soon.People were so quick
    to write off Roger and Nadal a few years ago because it was a sensational “story” but these players are still in
    the mix.Sure they don´t win every game but no one will and even Novak´s streak will end at some point.I just don´t enjoy seeing commentators write people off because they lost one match.Novak is on 20 match winning
    streak, but for how long can he keep that? Roger has 41 being the longest, if he can do it then I can believe in his consistency.
    In the other way Rafa´s easy draws has masked his poor form, hasn´t beaten a top 10 player this year,I think
    Roger can beat him in semis.

    [Reply]

  2. OK!!! OK!!! I’m back on the Federer bandwagon. It only took 2 days to realize that the Maestro did take a set off an on fire Novak. The way I look at it, Novak had to come thru and beat Nadal too. He had been beaten by him 5 times in a row at finals, and it was his turn. How long will he stay hot? Till he loses, and you saw traces of Novak’s mental weakness in the second set with Fed. Didn’t ya? I live in Tampa, and I just may make it down to Miami to watch Fed live for the first time in my life. I’ve been watchin the guy since he beat my other favorite Tennis player, Sampras. At the time, I hated him, but man that kids amazing talent and class won me over. Not a kid anymore though, and I hope he can improve the mental part, cause I think thats whats got him now. Now he’s got 2 players in his head, and we all know who they are.

    On a side note, I watch a little bit of the womans tennis too, and nothing makes me happier than seeing that smug face, screamin, thinks shes sexy, Sharapova get beat, by a fresh faced classy girl like Wozniaki.

    [Reply]

    Ru-an Reply:

    Thats right Gary, Roger is actually playing well now. With a little bit of luck he could make the final or win the title in Miami.

    [Reply]

    Gary Reply:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fC3uI-A8fGM&feature=related

    Some JesusFed for ya. G

    [Reply]

    TD Reply:

    Thanks for the link Gary, amazing stuff.
    “Backhand Festival” :-)

    [Reply]

    Arthur Reply:

    The thing that was so amazing about fed was that during his prime, he would be able to hit winners out of nowhere, many times when you were least expecting it.

    and back then, he didn’t hit close to the lines. he hit ON the lines. just like in that video. now, even though he’s playing an “aggressive game”, his shot placement is still so weak. his inside-out forehands are closer to the center of the court than to the line, and it’s the same for his approach shots. I think it’s an issue of confidence right now. if he can regain his confidence, hit closer to the lines, (in other words, less relentless attacking and more finesse), he could very possibly best DJ and nadal

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  3. Hi Ruan–Am also hoping for a Fedal resurgence at Miami, and of course may our man win. I was at Indian Wells and have to say that even though the Djoker won, he sure didn’t look like he could hold up physically for the next brutal round of matches. His knee looks wobbly and unlike you, am not sure he will even make the semis. He’s too banged up and that will definitely take a toll on him. What’s heartening about Federer (despite the loss) that folks don’t seem to give him enough credit for being in such great shape that he managed to play two tough singles and doubles matches, two days in a row.
    I don’t know if he can beat Nadal but I look forward to the match. Watching Djoker and Nadal play was not exciting–too much slugging and no finesse, even watching it live!

    [Reply]

    Ru-an Reply:

    Hi Sakhi yeah i didnt think about Djokovic’s tiredness. That may be another factor. And he is also playing the exho in Bogota today. Not much rest. Hopefully he will get upset. I dont see Nadal getting tired though. The guy is too much of a machine. But if he does that could work out great for Roger.

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  4. Thanks for posting the draw, Ru-an.

    Of course I am rooting for our man, but I am not expecting Federer to win this title. I would count it as a nice bonus if he did win. I’m not sure Djokovic or Nadal will win it.

    My feeling is that the first Federer/Nadal meeting of the year will be on clay, as is customary. Amazingly, Federer and Nadal have not met in a North American hardcourt tournament since Miami in 2005, though they’ve been one match away on numerous occasions.

    Judging by performance since the beginning of the year, Nadal is the #1 on paper only: 0-3 in tournaments and 0-1 in finals.

    Djokovic has been playing the best tennis so far this season. 3 consecutive titles and 20 straight match wins is remarkable. But I think he will start to tire and lose form soon, and clay will still test his endurance.

    On clay Nadal will surely make a sudden jump in power, speed, and stamina and become the beast we have seen for the past six years; however, I don’t believe he will have the dominant clay season he had last year.

    Del Potro is still a ways from his best, but I think he will be getting there around clay season, where his limited mobility is not such a disadvantage.

    Even if Roger goes out earlier, I wouldn’t despair of him. We saw progress in his match against Djokovic and he will continue to gain confidence and become more comfortable with the adjustments he’s having to make. Hopefully by the end of the clay-court Masters his game will reach its peak and he will be ready to make his move over the summer.

    I remain optimistic that he will be the one hoisting the Coupe de Mousquetaires this year on his way to a record-equaling seventh Wimbledon title.

    [Reply]

  5. An interesting draw and much more fairly distributed – no top seed got an easy draw. Federer won’t have a stroll but he should get to the quarter at least. There he might get a test from Roddick/Simon/Cilic (Roddick would want to defend his points). And then the semis… will see what happens in a few days. I sure Federer and his team are still looking on the big picture and that means he wants to get as many points as possible without burning out. That means reaching at least the semis. If he’ll make it, it would be a great achievement.

    A few interesting matches in the early rounds:
    – Tsonga-Dolgo and then I hope Dolgo-Nadal
    – Harrison-Roddick (does Roddick has a chance?)
    – Del Potro-Soderling
    – Djokovic-Troicki… just kiddin
    – Djokovic-Murray

    And a few questions:
    – Can Federer continue his semis or better run? (I believe)
    – Can Nadal take this one? (I guess, he has a point to make)
    – Can Djokovic keep it up? (Not likely but I’m not so sure anymore)
    – Will Murray win his dignity back by beating Djokovic? (Is anyone willing to put his money on it)

    [Reply]

  6. Djokovic says that Nadal is the best player ever for him.

    What do you think about that Ruan ?

    [Reply]

    Ru-an Reply:

    I think its Djokovic showing his dislike for Roger.

    [Reply]

    ARAVINDHAN Reply:

    I think he is getting that Murray’s “Bad Talk” syndrome where the victim tries to defeat Federer in Trash talk!!!! I am starting to dislike him(may be he beat Federer 3 times in a row) & he is no Joker any more!!!!But the difference is Djokovic has won 2 slams to back it up!!! But untill he faces the likes Raonic,Dogopolov,Harrison etc his streak isn’t that IMPRESSIVE!!!

    [Reply]

    Ru-an Reply:

    I think its safe to say his streak is impressive. Raonic, Dolgo, and Harrison is nothing like beating Roger, Murray and NAdal.

    [Reply]

    ARAVINDHAN Reply:

    What i meant was Djokovic didn’t had to beat Federer after having beaten the likes of Dogopolov,Roanic,Harrison or even Somdev in back to back matches !!!! And in the Final he faced Nadal unsettled by Somdev + tight one against Karlovic[both unseeded & yet BRILLIANT Rafa made it!!!!]….

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  7. Roger is on course for a good performance in Miami. I see only Nodal and Djokovic as the only two guys who can stop him this year from getting to where he wants. He should make the semis again in Miami as I had predicted earlier.

    Do read cliff Drysdale’s interview from the tennis magazine website. It’s therapeutic reading for all of us who believe in Roger. Pat Cash also has a few noteworthy points in his interview.

    [Reply]

  8. Why does DJ dislike Roger Ru-an?

    [Reply]

    Ru-an Reply:

    There was that incident when Roger told Djokovic’s parents to shut up in the crowd and Djokovic’s mom saying the king is dead after Djokovic beat him at the 2008 AO. But i have always gotten the feeling just by watching their matches that Roger doesnt like Djokovic much, and understandably so.

    [Reply]

    muhammad Reply:

    Thats gross…we will see soon where djoker belongs…just wait and watch…i dont see him consistent enough to gobble down every title which comes his way…Plus roger is a class act both on and off the field who doesnt care about cheap publicity stunts which djoker is actually engaging himself into these days.

    [Reply]

  9. I agree that Roger has a good shot at the semi. If he has to play Nadal tho’ it’s hard to see that ending well for him on this surface. Miami courts are slow and high bouncing, really ideal for Nadal and he’s matched up well against Roger here the two times they’ve played.

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  10. When Djokovic describes Nadal as “the best player ever” (despite Federer having so many more slams and records than Nadal) and Djokovic has just convincingly beaten him, what do you think Djoko is saying about himself?(without actually coming out with it!)

    [Reply]

    Ru-an Reply:

    Yeah that is another point. He is bigging himself up. He is cocky and that is why Roger doesnt like him.

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  11. In relation to the draw my view is that it’s fair…. apart from to poor Soderling! I’m not a huge fan of the guys’ antics on court so i’m not bothered about it being unfair. It does seem however that since becoming world number 4 he only gets bad draws. I guess the ATP figure he’s less ‘box office’ than Murray

    Since Indian Wells I’ve re-watched Roger’s match against Djokovic and I must say that Roger played some amazing stuff. He was on form throughout the first 2.5 sets and should have really won that match- he just lost focus, became annoyed with himself and folded. As Ru-an has said the pressure got to him. The same thing happened with Nadal really- DJ is just at another level right now. He doesn’t hit unforced errors and he gets to balls that should go for winners 9 times out of 10.

    Roger is still playing to a very high level. He needs to sort his serving out and then he’ll be unbeatable in this tournament in my view. What’s happened to that wonderful new serve he started to use at the beginning of the year when he served onto the left side line from the Deuce side? He didn’t use that much in the last 2 tournaments. He needs to become more secure on serve. he’s also hitting too many double faults. A double fault on break-point is not good and it reveals that his serve is hard work for him at the moment.

    Monaco and Roddick are good seeds for Roger to have. Let’s see if Djokovic can beat Murray, Soderling/Del Potro and then Roger/ Nadal to take the title. He’s also playing doubles with Murray. He obviously agreed that in Australia with Murray but it won’t help his fatigue. There’s not much of a gap between this tournament and the clay season so not great thinking to play doubles too. Let’s hope he burns out soon.

    [Reply]

  12. Oh my god have you seen which qualifier has popped into Roger’s section of the draw and if he wins 1 more match he’ll be playing Roger…….!!!!? Dimitrov!! Wow that’s an exciting match up. The GOAT v Baby Federer. We’ll have to see if he can get past Stakhovsky first as he’s been playing well lately

    [Reply]

    Ru-an Reply:

    I doubt Dimitrov will meet Roger. Dimitrov cant win a match.

    [Reply]

    Ru-an Reply:

    As you can see Dimitrov lost easily today.

    [Reply]

    Andrew Reply:

    Ok OK. I was getting over excited sorry! haha

    [Reply]

    Ru-an Reply:

    No worries lol i just have a pretty good idea of what is going on with Dimitrov.

    [Reply]

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