Indian Wells Draw Tricky One for Federer

http://www.atpworldtour.com/share/event-draws.aspx?year=2013&eventid=404&draw=ms

Just a quick post from me to update you on the Indian Wells draw. The big news is that the resurgent Nadal is in his quarter of the draw.    If that isn’t enough then he is drawn to meet Benneteau in the third round and Berdych in the semis. And if he somehow makes it all the way to the final then of course he is drawn to play Djokovic. That is as tough as a draw will get for Roger. And his form has not exactly been sparkling of late. In the second round Roger plays the winner of Pospisil and Istomin who is currently on court. I think he should be ok there but then he faces Benneteau who he just lost to in Rotterdam. I don’t know what to expect from Roger in Indian Wells in all honesty. He could suffer and early exit or go all the way to the final. Or he could just lose to Nadal, which is probably the most likely outcome.

Nadal: “I’ve missed you Roger…”

Nadal is Roger’s nemesis and his South American trip has been a success. In his last match he destroyed Ferrer and looked like the old Nadal. Roger beat Nadal last year in Indian Wells in stunning fashion, but that was after he won Rotterdam and Dubai. I don’t think he has the confidence to repeat that result. Nadal hasn’t played on hard court in a long time though so who knows. It would sure be an interesting match up and the first time they meet in a quarter final as far as I know. But of course we are far from there. If Roger passes his first match and takes revenge over Benneteau, he still has Isner or Wawrinka to deal with. Nadal’s draw until the quarters isn’t very tough. I don’t see Youzhny or Tipsarevic beating him, although as I said it is his first tournament on hard court for a long time. Gulbis could have been a serious threat to him, but Gulbis just won New Haven and had to play qualifying.

The ladies be loving this photo. I just want that shirt. 

So he will be really tired if he makes quarters. The draw as usual is favoring Nadal. If he had Roger’s draw there would have been a bigger chance of him being upset. In the top half of the draw you have Djokovic, Murray, Del Potro, and Tsonga, so I think things are pretty well balanced. Roger has a chance here to take revenge over Benneteau and Berdych, but then he has to get by his nemesis Nadal probably. If he does beat Benneteau and Nadal then it would give confidence that he can beat Berdych this time. So it is a tough draw but in a sense a good one because every match will prepare him well for the nest one. This is a chance for Roger to make up for the last two events and make the final at least. He just has to start with a win and every win will give him confidence that he can win the next match. It’s possible!

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20 Comments

  1. I think if Federer does in fact make it to the quarters and beats Nadal, he will go all the way. Should Berdych be there waiting for Roger, Tin Man will get schooled by Fed.I think he’s going to stamp his authority on this one because people seem to have a short memory of what he is capable of accomplishing. I see Murray screwing up and Djokovic having a cupcake draw and making it straight to the final without really being tested. Hoping for a great tournament and superb play from the master himself. Good write-up Ruan.

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    pryzm Reply:

    I may be too optimistic, but I still see Federer taking Nadal on hard courts. He’s bagled Nadal on them bfeore after all.

    I don’t think Nadal is in Federer’s head anymore, at least not the way he used to be. Federer has had a lot of time (and a new coach to help) to think about anti-Nadal strategies, and he knows that Nadal is not the only player he has to be careful about at this point. And I’m certain that he’s grown tired of Nadal’s gamesmanship, e.g. toilet breaks at match point, his OCD ways, etc. Remember how close the French Open was in 2011, after Fed had put an end to Djoker’s winning streak in the semis.

    And I think having Nadal back increases the chances that both players who make to the final of a Grand Slam will have to work to get there. So it’s not as likely that Fed will have a tough match with Murray, for example, and then have to fight against a fresh Djoker.

    So I think there are a lot of positive aspects to having Nadal back in the way of other players. And I think Fed is playing very well (not perfectly, obviously) and I think he’ll have a good season. A slam win would be great, but two, with one coming at Roland Garros, would be simply amazing.

    Always a Fed Fan,
    Pryzm

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  2. During a press meet at Indian Wells, Roger reviewed his performance in 2013 till now…

    ” Assessing his season thus far, Federer said, “I think I played really well in Australia. Rotterdam, I was disappointed with. I felt I could have done better. I played so well the year before. I never really got going. Dubai was a bit unfortunate losing with three match points and having to explain the loss when you feel you should be preparing for the final. What happened, happened. I’m playing fine. Obviously I hoped to have won a tournament by now but I’m happy with my game.” ”

    So he is still positive about this season.
    Good Luck Roger :-)

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    Veronica Reply:

    Way to go, Ru-an!! The less time you get, the more determined you are to keep this blog going as regular as you best could. Really Appreciate your determination and your “devotion” to all of us, hehehe!! I had a field day just feasting on your posts since I got back……post after post after post!! It was glorious! I love how pissed you were after berd shitted again. haha! Once again, we are caught in a situation of not knowing what to expect from roger. I really thot that after a memorable 2012 and birth of roger 3.0 (although he got burnt out at the end) he would continue the winning momentum into 2013 and have a real shot of regaining no. 1 yet again. I think AO loss affected him quite badly and what we seeing now is a let down,an aftermath of that loss (and after such a monumental year, naturally there would be let downs) and plus his back acting up again from AO didn’t help. And then there’s also question of motivation. What can really drive him now, I mean REALLY drive him; what can be more motivating than what he achieved last year? – Olympics, regaining wimby and no. 1? Been there, done that. What else is there for him? sure he still loves to play, loves the life, etc, but he needs motivation to want to win every time he steps on court. You could see last year the desire, fire, passion, determination, concentration in his eyes, in his body, in his attitude. We saw what a mightily motivated roger could do last year. He took our breaths away and exceeded all expectations. While there maybe many factors and areas he can improve or work on, I believe motivation is the biggest factor now for roger. He has got to find it. For me, beating the younger opponents and putting them back in their places and teaching them how real tennis should be played, should be roger’s biggest motivation. JUST SPANK them as they come along, and the ranking and slam titles will take care of themselves. What say you, Ru-an? Agree?!!

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    Ru-an Reply:

    I guess you spoke too early Veronica I already missed a post and won’t make one tonight either. But I will try really had to get one in tomorrow. I work 9 hours a day now and every second weekend. At least I have been able to watch Roger’s matches when I get home this week, but that means less time for blogging.

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    veronica Reply:

    You misunderstood, Ru-an! I was talking about feasting on all the BACK LOG of posts from you that I missed from middle of AO right till end Dubai; I had a great time just reading all the posts that I missed! I do not expect regular posts from you although I continue to hope, Ha! Being in a new country and with your crazy working hours, it takes a lot out of you physically and mentally to keep this blog going. Maintaining a sports blog is different than other blogs in that it requires you to watch the matches first before you can write. How can you find the time to BOTH watch and write?!! If I were you, I would have abandoned this blog already! Ha! So, Ru-an, you are actually doing too well already!!

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  3. Exactly my thoughts – extremely tricky draw. What are the odds that Roger has 3 bogeymen at his section. If he goes through he will might be able to pull of big W here. I think it will be a great morale boost going into his long 2 month break. I guess we have to take 1 match at a time. Who know maybe it will open up for him.

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    Veronica Reply:

    Lol, dippy! 3 bogeymen!! Roger needs a bit of a miracle, maybe the draw will open up like the Red Sea and roger goes safely thru!! I really hope he does well; gotta put a brake to the losses. He and berd are the only top 10s without a title so far this year whereas djoko is like tittles falling down from the sky for him and he cant pick them up fast enough!! Lets hope roger breaks his title drought right here in desert land!

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  4. I think that it is going to be a good tournament for Fed. I think he can make the quarters without the loss of a set and then the match with Nadal will be tough as usual. But I think if he gets by his greatest rival then he will make the final against Djokovic, who I doubt drops a set all the way to the final.

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  5. Btw Ru-an, love your “I’ve missed u roger”. LOL! You seem a serious person so sometimes when you try something humourous it’s really effective and cracks me up every time. And when roger messes things up and I feel horrible, then I read a pissed post from you and I feel better! – strange, isn’t it?! I don’t really mind the negativity you show in your posts sometimes – just shows you care and you are feelin’ it. Ok, i wont “praise” you anymore or you’ll get too proud !! hehehe!!! But someone else out there better be proud and begin slaughtering the BULL and the BIRD and then have his EGG and crack it!!! Common roger!!

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    Ru-an Reply:

    People often see my realism as negativity. But sometimes I can be more positive I agree. I like that you notice things like that caption I made. You are the only one that gives me feedback on things like that which is why I feel closer to you. And you are also honest and forthright. I like that.

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  6. Hi Ru-an,

    I kind of disagree with your post here… You seem to have made Rafa outright favourite against Roger (provided they meet in the QF), but to be frank, i think it will be the other way round. For that matter, I think Rafa might not even make the QF & deliberately lose b4 that, bcoz we all understand that he relies mainly on mind games. He’ll never want his 1st meeting with the top 3 to end in a loss & hence, he’ll try his best to face the Top 3 on his fav surface – clay, or perhaps at Miami, which is almost clay-like. We also know that Rafa almost considered pulling out of Indian Wells (perhaps for the same reason), but then, had a change of mind & must have thought – “let me atleast defend some points & try to get back to #4, so that I dont face the top 3 in the QF again”

    On the other hand, Roger has assessed his season pretty well so far. He knows where his game is & I feel he would go all-out to retain his title at Indian Wells, given that it would be his last tournament in a while. And trust me, he is not at all bothered about Rafa’s presence in his quarter. On the contrary, he has expressed happiness on seeing Rafa back. I’m sure Roger will try & improve on the H2H against Rafa, if & when they meet.

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  7. Hi all, especially Wilfried and Veronica!

    The IW court is so slow that I don’t see Benneteau being able to trouble him as he could on a fast indoor court. Same with Berdych, who won’t be able to overwhelm Federer as easily here as on a fast court. Federer will have a bit more time to work the points and bring his variation into play, instead of relying on his first-strike game, which was a bit shaky in the last couple tournaments.

    Federer can only beat Nadal by playing his best tennis. I don’t think Nadal’s form (or supposed lack thereof) will make any difference to the result, it depends only on Federer.

    If Federer makes it past Nadal, then he is playing very well and has a great shot at winning it all. I believe that in every tournament in which he has ever beaten Nadal, he has always gone on to win the title (OTOH, this is the first time since they met in Miami 9 years ago that they could play before the semifinal round, so even if Federer beats Nadal in the QFs he still has to play two more great matches).

    But one match at a time. I see he’s beaten Istomin handily so it looks like he has eased into the tournament. Now for round 3!

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    veronica Reply:

    Whew! How cold-blooded was that?!! Roger scared me!! – He looked so fierce and business-like! Everything clicked, serve, forehand,defence,movement; Even had some great and deep ROS off his backhand. He is on a mission. Don’t fool around with Roger in this kinda mood!! Haha! Love his attire. Thought the pink/grey combo was outstanding. This one is just as great. Btw,did you guys notice that Roger dumped the pink for blue when he played Berd in Dubai? Maybe that’s why he lost!! Benneteau is out….and the Red Sea has parted slightly! Ha! If Roger can maintain this level of concentration and play, he has excellent chance of making the final and even winning it. Allez Roger!!

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  8. Haven’t watched the Dodig match yet – scoreline looks like another masterclass but it was mentioned in some reports about Roger tweaking his back?!! NOOOOO!! Please, God, let Roger be all right……

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  9. Just watched the match – yep, Roger tweaked his back; I think when he was 4-1 up in second set. He couldn’t bend to serve and played stiffly. But he still won it easily and it was a great second set; first set not so. Hope it’s not serious.

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    marron Reply:

    He didn’t sound concerned in his interview. But then, he wouldn’t let on if it was bad anyway. Got some time to get treatment before his next match. Hope he’s OK.

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    Katyani Reply:

    Hi Veronica and Marron,

    He is Roger Federer, of course he is ok!! I do hope his back will not give him any problems anymore. He has to face Stan, Rafa, Berdych and Novak.

    Did you see how gorgeous and handsome and cool he looks in my country’s national colour, orange???

    Really, only Roger can carry off pink and orange.

    Katyani

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    veronica Reply:

    Agree 100% Katyani! Couldn’t take my eyes off him!! Haha! Gulbis is on a hot streak; I hope he takes out Nadal. Stan is strong and just waiting to get a first hard court victory over Roger. Roger’s gotta be sharp. Most important, the back can be relied upon for just 4 more (very tough) matches and it can go rest all it wants. Common Roger!!

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