French Open Rd 1: Darth Fed def Kamke 6-2, 7-5, 6-3 to Equal Connors in Grand Slam Match Wins

And we’re off. I have no idea why they put Roger on Lenglen, but it meant that I couldn’t watch his match. I guess the French thought Gilles Simon was a bigger name than Roger. Anyway I didn’t miss much. First round matches for Roger is nothing more than an exhibition match, and nothing whatsoever could be deduced from this match. Therefor I won’t spend much time analyzing it. The few points I saw it looked exactly like Roger was playing an exhibition match, like the Abu Dhabi exho earlier this year. He looked like he was practicing and missed many easy shots. So anyone who takes this match seriously is mistaken as far as I’m concerned. Apparently at the end he was 5-1 up and then lost concentration, so the score should have probably been 6-1 in the last set.

But like I said I can’t read anything into this match. The nice thing was that he became the first tennis player to win more than 50 or more matches at every grand slam, and he also equaled Jimmy Connor’s record of 233 match wins at grand slams. That is pretty amazing given that Connors played until he was 44. The other record Connors has is the most amount of titles won at 109. Equaling that is pushing it, but with Roger you can never tell. If Roger reaches 100 titles it would already be an incredible achievement in this day and age. The game is a hundred times more physical and competitive than in Connors’ days, so it will be hard. I think Roger will still play for a long time though. I definitely think he will play until the 2016 Olympics.

Well look who the cat dragged in

Next up for Roger is Ungur who beat Nalbandian in four sets. Something that never ceases to surprise me is how easily Fedfans panic. Some Fedfans were already panicking about Nalbandian in the second round, and now he won’t even be there. I understand that fans care, but this is why you should not assume that anyone will win any given match. Unless the player is in the top three. Then their chances of going deep increases significantly. A draw is just a rough estimate of what could happen in the tournament. There is nothing definitive about it. What is definitive is that Roger will play Ungur next, who he has never played before and who I have never heard of before. If he can beat Nalbandian he can’t be all bad, but you would expect Roger to improve a lot from his first round and get a routine win here.

As for other results Roddick lost in the first round to Mahut in four sets, so he won’t be playing Roger in the third round. To me that is not an upset. Roddick is a pathetic clay court player like most Americans. Also Lopez withdrew from his first round match with Serra, so Roger’s draw looks much easier all of a sudden. Or does it? Not facing any real competition until the quarter finals won’t necessarily be a good thing when he comes up against Berdych or Del Potro in the quarters. It could save him some energy, but ideally you want the competition to gradually become stiffer so you can build your form up. The other two members of the big three had routine wins themselves. Djokovic won 7-6, 6-3, 6-1 against Starace, while Nadal won 6-2, 6-2, 6-1 against Bolelli.

Darth Fed decided to play with black socks in the end

As expected Nadal looks the best so far, while Roger looked the worst. Djokovic is somewhere in between. I don’t think that is a coincidence either. I have already told you that Nadal will win the tournament. I will predict further and say that Roger will make the semis and lose to Djokovic, although that is a much tougher prediction to make. I would love for Roger to get revenge for his two semi-final losses at the US Open to Djokovic by beating him for a second time in the French Open semis, but my gut feeling says this is Djokovic’s turn to finally make the final in Paris. Roger has lost so many times to Nadal in Paris that he won’t have much motivation to make the final either. So I definitely see a Rafole final with Nadal winning it.

Sorry if that prediction disappoints you, but I just can’t see it any other way. A Rafole final is due. I think what happened in Rome also tells us a lot. I see the French Open playing out pretty much exactly the same way. Djokovic will beat Roger in the semis and then the pressure of winning the Novak slam will be too much in the final. But not only that. He is not at 2011 level anymore and Nadal has now won their last two meetings on clay. I feel it’s a bit too predictable in a sense. I hope I am proven wrong and it plays out differently. We have seen the unexpected happen too many times to believe that the outcome is fixed, which is why we stay interested.

Highlights: 

Presser: http://www.ubitennis.com/sport/tennis/2012/05/28/719909-federer_2012.shtml

Interview:

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36 Comments

  1. I agree with your predictions and most importantly the way you analyze and estimate things in men’s tennis. Of course these are only my initial thoughts. Roger may catch fire and destroy everybody – including Djokovic – on his way to the final and then somehow snatch his 2nd French Open trophy away from Nadal. Anyway, I know it’s so early but I think Roger has Halle, Wimbledon and London Olympics at the back of his mind. I really want him to dominate the grass court season. It’s feasible I think. As long as Roger avoids the upsets he’s been having the last couple of years (2010-Berdych//2011-Tsonga) in Wimbledon, he will be the prohibitive favorite to beat Djokovic or Nadal in the semi-final. Last year Roger reached the FO final after that epic match against Djokovic which meant he did not have a single day to rest before going to Halle and consequently he cancelled it. We all know there is no transition process between clay and grass which is quite unacceptable – yet acceptable according to the ATP as it seems.

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  2. Hi Ruan I must say this, I hope that you are WRONG. I still have hopes for Fed.

    One thing I notice about Roger in tournaments that he wins: usually he has a God mode match, and A game match, a couple of routining matches, a tough B-game match and a off C-game match.

    Example 1: (Indian Wells 2012)

    R2 Kudla (routining)
    R3 Raonic (tough B-game)
    R4 Belluci (off C-game)
    QF Delpo (A game routining)
    SF Nadal (God Destroyer)
    F Isner (A/B game)

    Example 2: (Madrid 2012)

    R2 Raonic (tough B-game)
    R3 Gasquet (routining)
    QF Ferrer (A-game)
    SF Tipsarevic (routining)
    F Berdych (B/C game, played better in the end)

    So you can see Roger usually gets a bad match in a tournament. That’s what happened to him in Rome, the bad performance came at the wrong time. When you see Roger going God mode destroying people, you know the error mode was bound to come out some time.

    As far as I see Roger played absolutely BAD today. As in, he had 2 sitting high balls in a row and can miss it. Holding a service game takes 4 deuces because of UEs. But nonetheless he won in straight sets and that’s what it matters. Roger has dumped his C game away, and he should be playing better now. Even the comms said that first round matches shouldn’t be destructive, e.g. Djoker and Rafa’s matches. It’s better to win the first set comfortably and chill for the rest, which is what Roger did.

    Anyway I have hopes for Roger reaching the final, of course winning the title is another thing, but we’ll see and take it match by match. :-)

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  3. I have the same feeling regarding the semis but I explain it with Federer’s state of mind. He declared again and again that his main goals are the Wimbledon and the Olympics. He will save himself and won’t battle with Djokovic to the death this time. Last year he had something to prove so he came with that mentality, but not this year. It’s not a conscious decision, it’s just the way it will play out. It was the same in Rome, BTW.
    .
    I just hope he makes it to the semis (not that obvious) and collect in Wimbledon the points he’s going to lose from last year final.

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  4. OMG!!! I just witnessed the biggest upset of the year! Serena Williams lost in the first round after saving 8 match points. On the 9th, the dragon was finally slain. Wow!!!

    Surprises are here to happen, folks!

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    Ru-an Reply:

    Awesome, isn’t it?

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  5. Ru-an, Federer certainly has every motivation to make the final: he wants to win the title!

    This is a man who was overjoyed to win Dubai for the fifth time and IW for the fourth time. Surely he must be far more motivated to win a Grand Slam he’s only won once?

    He goes into every tournament with the conscious intent to win. He may or may not walk away with the title, but that’s another matter altogether. It would harm his mental game to go into a tournament having written it off. Part of his discipline is to take each match seriously, and give his best effort. It would be unprofessional and disrespectful to do otherwise.

    He has not won a major for over two years. He has every reason to be hungry to win this one and break the drought. Grand Slams don’t grow on trees–not even for Roger Federer–and passing up a chance to win one would be foolish and unworthy of him. He may or may not win, but if he doesn’t win, it won’t be because he didn’t put in as much as he could.

    By the tail-end of Rome, he had played something like 9 matches in 12 days, right after coming off a six-week break. It was incredible enough that he won Madrid, I don’t think people appreciate how strenuous it is to come off a long layoff and immediately engage in such a intense, sustained level of physical activity, all while adjusting to a novel surface others described as unplayable.

    He tried his best in Rome but after Madrid he simply didn’t have enough left in the tank to come back against Djokovic. Now he’s had a little rest (but not too much) and he should be warmed up and ready to go. He isn’t coming in totally cold like he did in Madrid, and in the Grand Slams he will have the extra day between matches to recover. He will not be running on fumes if he makes the semis.

    But right now, his only concern should be his next match. The title is a long way off and there’s no point in thinking about the final or semis now. The only focus in the early rounds is to get through as quickly and efficiently as possible.

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    Ru-an Reply:

    There is the sub-conscious to consider. He will never consciously tank but deep down he knows he can’t beat Nadal at RG. It is what it is. It is much better if he loses in the semis and focus on Wimby, Olympics, and the US Open and in the process save some precious energy. If it’s a Djokerer final both of them may withdraw from Halle or at least they will be tired giving Roger the opportunity to win Halle and get perfect prep for Wimby. It’s not always about winning. Sometimes you have to do the smart thing which will result in you being successful in the long run.

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    steve Reply:

    Ru-an, Federer has worked very, very hard for the past year and a half to get to the position he is now in.

    He is playing extremely well–as well as he’s ever been. He has confidence from winning tournaments. He has beaten Nadal on an outdoor hard court for the first time in seven years.

    To throw away all that momentum for an uncertain possibility of future victory would disrupt his entire season.

    Last year a lot of people here were freaking out after his tough, baffling losses to Tsonga and Djokovic in the Grand Slams.

    At the time, I suggested that those losses were a necessary sacrifice he needed to make to raise his game.

    If he were to duck out now that he has finally succeeded in raising his game, those sacrifices would be for nothing. All that hard work and those bitter defeats would have been pointless.

    To me, the idea that Federer should dodge RG in order to save himself for the other majors is a chimera.

    First, it’s better to take the chance that presents itself to him than throw it away for some possible future chance that may never come.

    After all, he has not made the Wimbledon or USO finals in nearly three years. Who’s to say when he will again?

    No, if he has the opportunity to contest another RG final he must give his all to seize it, Nadal or no Nadal.

    Second, if Nadal wins RG, it’s nearly 100% certain we will be seeing him in the finals of Wimbledon, the Olympics, and USO.

    You might say Federer’s chances against Nadal will be better on grass or hard courts, but I don’t think so–not enough to be decisive of the result.

    The only surface which gives Federer a decisive edge is indoor hard courts. There he can pinpoint his attacks and overwhelm Nadal’s forehand with his crosscourt backhand.

    For the other surfaces, whether clay, hard courts, or grass, he must raise his game to beat Nadal, as this year’s AO should have demonstrated without a doubt. There is no way around it.

    One of my favorite books, A Wizard of Earthsea, is the story of a cocky young magician who, even as a boy, is hailed as potentially one of the greatest wizards ever (sound familiar?). In a moment of anger and pride he unleashes a dreadful shadow whose sole goal is to possess him, drain him of life, and use his powers for destruction.

    All his magic is useless against the shadow (again, sound familiar?), so he runs and runs, hoping to avoid it, but the relentless, tireless shadow constantly chases him (yet again, sound familiar?) and always catches up to him.

    Eventually he flees to his old teacher, who advises him that there is no refuge, that his only chance is to turn around and confront his shadow head-on.

    Nadal represents Federer’s shadow, the ghost that Federer must lay to rest on the terre battue of Paris if he is to achieve his destiny. Let us not kid ourselves about that.

    That shadow was always within Federer: his own laziness, his stubborn insistence on going head-on into his opponent’s strength, his own desire to play it safe and stick to what he knows rather than venture into the unknown and attempt to play truly free tennis with no fixed patterns.

    Nadal is no more than the messenger of Federer’s fate who brings all those traits to the surface. Federer can try to duck that fate temporarily, but at some point he will have to meet it head-on.

    Soderling gave Federer the chance to complete the career Slam and break Sampras’ Grand Slam record; Djokovic last year gave Federer time to regroup and raise his game. Now that respite is rapidly coming to an end. There is no refuge, and no safe place. He has to turn around and give battle.

    Because this isn’t a book, we can’t just skip to the end to learn how it turns out. We are all hoping for a happy ending, but it is really up to Federer whether he can rise to the challenge and make peace with his shadow.

    Like many things in life, if it were guaranteed that he’d be able to do it, it wouldn’t be worth doing. So we can only cheer on our favorite Swiss in the hope that he can do it.

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    George Reply:

    Hope you are right about this one Steve, cuz you always seem to be, writing nice stuff about our Swiss Maestro, and most of the times you sound pretty convincing I gotta say, but fact is Roger hasn’t won a slam for more than two years now; he HAS to break that drought as soon as possible or else he may lose his confidence and drop his (high) level of performance again. However, should he finds 2011 RG form – which was described by Tipsarevic as probably the greatest clay-court tennis he’s ever witnessed- he will not only make the final but destroy everyone in his path to it. Hell, with this game he can demolish even Nadull in the final provided he stays focused throughout the whole match without any mental lapses like last year. People may have forgot how Roger played last year in Paris but I do remember his exquisite play, from the very first day Federer was too good for anyone in his path to the final and destroyed his opponents just by his amazing serves (he kept producing aces even from his 2nd serves). He has to find that peRFect touch if he is to win the tournament. I hope he will.
    COME ONNN ROGERRRR!!! ALLEZZZZZ!!!

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    Ru-an Reply:

    George, I don’t think Roger necessarily has to go past semis here to keep up his confidence from this year so far. In fact the fact that he is so confident means that he can afford a loss in the semis. Last year he couldn’t afford it. He had something to prove. But this year he can afford to think long term. Let Rafole tire each other our in the RG final and then go do the business in the grass and hard court seasons where he was loads of points to gain :-)

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    onefly9 Reply:

    What a beautifully written piece of truth, Steve! Words of life wisdom indeed.
    I believe deep down inside most of us Fedfans, we know that this is the ultimate challenge facing the greatest tennis player ever to grace the court.
    To conquer his own demon/shadow will truly define and engrave his greatness beyond doubt.

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    Vily Reply:

    This is beautifully written, Steve! I absolutely agree with you! Roger should never and has never run away from the challenge and this year is no different. He may not be the greatest clay court player ever but he has been second best to Nadal. And it would mean the world to him if he kills the demon at his home.

    It would be the sweetest victory of all. I know I live in a fantasy by dreaming that but who is to say that this will never happen. One must hope until the very end.

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    Ru-an Reply:

    Lets say he does beat Nadal in a RG final, what would that take out of him? What would he have left for Wimby, Olympics, and USO? He is not 23 anymore where he can play as much as he want. He must plan ahead and decide where he wants to spend the most energy. He couldn’t even beat Nadal in the AO semis where the conditions are less favorable for Nadal. What makes you think he will beat him here? Roger can take the #2 rank back after Wimby and even get to #1 if he wins the USO. No one will doubt his GOAT status then.

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    Ru-an Reply:

    Good comment Steve. You are probably right but you are setting the bar awfully high for Roger if you want him to beat Nadal at RG in order to be GOAT. Nadal is the clay GOAT after all.

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    feddybear Reply:

    very nice commnet Steve, but i’m afraid Fed’s career is not a fantasy book and Rafa is more than Fed’s evil demon – he is a very accomplished player on his own and the master of clay courts.
    having said that i fully agree with your bottom line – Fed should not shy away from the challange of playing another final vs Nadal !!
    so far he hasn’t played his best, but i hope he is saving his A game for the more demanding matches ahead.
    it seems now that in order to lwin he would have to go through Berdych, Djoko, Nadal.
    though task. even for the GOAT.

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  6. I think it is too early to make predictions. I agree that it would be very difficult to beat both Novak and Rafa back to back.

    However, Roger may play some matches in the tournament and get mentally and emotionally involved so that he can have the desire to win. Obviously he wouldn’t want to let Djokovic and Nadal take all the glory. I also think that Roger shouldn’t run away from the challenge.

    You may say that Roger might not have what it takes to beat Rafa but again – this is another year – another try. Rafa can’t run everything down forever. We’ll just have to wait and see. After today’s surprising result in the women’s side, I can’t pencil in anybody in the semis until I see it. Hopefully Nadal will have to go through both Raonic and or Isner.

    One just never know. Roger also has tricky draw so we can’t just assume that everyone will make the semis as scripted. And if they do, it will be very important to see the mindset of each of the three champions at that point.

    Allez Roger!

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    Ru-an Reply:

    ‘Rafa can’t run everything down forever.’

    This is where you are wrong. He can and will run everything down forever. At the 2012 FO at least anyway. Roger will tank sub-consciously in the semis against Djokovic. Just watch and see. It will be by far the best move. There is a lot of tennis left after RG. Why spend an insane amount of energy trying to go through Djokovic and Nadal on clay of all surfaces? He will need the energy to go through them on grass and hard. Forget the FO. It’s off limits.

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    Vily Reply:

    The logic may point to Roger losing to Djokovic in order to avoid another defeat to Nadal. However, Roger has defied logic many many times and that is why we love him.

    I also think that should Roger lose to Djokovic, he may actually start to lose the plot against him. He used to have believe that he can beat him anywhere. But if he loses here, this may no longer be true. He’ll have lost two times at the US Open and now here would be too much.

    Then again, I realize that Novak and Rafa are playing for more so we’ll see. I am just worried that Roger won’t be seriously taken as a favourite or even co-favourite if he can’t make it to the final here. He has to show that he can beat Rafa and Novak to have any chance in any of the remaining grand-slams or tournaments.

    We’ll just have to wait and see.

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    Ru-an Reply:

    Fair enough point. There is a lot to consider here. I’m just saying this is Roger’s least favorite surface while Nadal and Djokovic is more suited to it. Let them slug it out for hours and focus on Wimby and the rest. He has already proven this year that he is right up there with them. He can’t get the #2 ranking back before Wimby anyway since Wimby do their own seedings. He’ll get it back after Wimby and win the USO to become #1.

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    rhiitk Reply:

    Ruan, i disagree with you..i dont think roger would tank against Djoker..Roger is a champion and i dont think he would hv such a loser attitude that he would tank in here just to conserve energy. thats d reason y we love him isnt it??we just cant assume that he would reach finals of Wimby as of now..he will hv to focus on whats in the plate currently rather than jst assuming whats gonna happen in latter tournaments. i am sure Roger gonna give his best, he surely doesnt wanna lose his mental plot against the top players just to conserve energy, n if it is true it would be quite stupid!..I think roger is a fighter and wont go down so easily.

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    Ru-an Reply:

    Never said he would tank consciously. Go read my comment again.

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  7. What does it mean to fulfill one’s destiny? And has Roger already done so? I think not. If a great player like Agassi can lift a Major trophy in his 30’s, it becomes incumbent upon Federer to do the same. The Gods have thrust the Mantle of Greatness upon him, and now he must live up to this honor and complete himself. Anything short of a 17th crown will leave the bitter taste of disappointment on everyone’s tongue. Yes, the Gods can be cruel in this way, for they demand much of the few They have bestowed with Their most generous favors. Yet even with such blessings, it is not a given that the protagonist will succeed. Instead, he must scratch and claw and fight to the death, if need be, to achieve the glory he has been summoned to. This is what awaits our hero now. Much is at stake for him in the next year or two. Will he rise to the challenge? Will he become what he was meant to be?

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    Ru-an Reply:

    Love it Balthazar.

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  8. ONe game at a time…no expectations…but lots of hopes and prayers…if he wins well and good… if not then onto the next tourney… :-)

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  9. You may be right about the ultimate outcome. But if Roger meets Djoko in the semi I doubt whether he will pass up the chance to beat the current world no.1 if it is there. If he then makes to to the final he may well lose as you say but if he were to take the first set (which he should have done last year) then who knows. Although Nadal won easily against Bolelli yesterday the Itilian simply panicked whenever he had the opportunity to break Nadal or hold serve and repeatedly drilled the net. Another choker. I don’t think Roger 3.0 would miss those shots.

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  10. how can we underestimate roger on clay ??? after all, he’s the second best player at roland garros in this era. time and time again roger says that he knows very well how to beat these top guys, just that he can’t execute perfectly always. i know roger will not give up consciously or sub-consciously should he meet djokovic or nadal on clay or on any surface, especially at a grand slam. of-course, roger has 50-50 chance at least against djokovic if he plays his A game indeed.

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  11. Brave and true prediction, judging from his current form based on 2 round match – not impressive at all. I am not entirely confident he can even pass the quarters. As a player, he has to raise to the challenge even though he will get smoked by Nadal or Djoker. He has conditioned himself for the long haul surely he has to want to face them come friday or sunday next week. I see more positive for him to push himself all the way to finals and try to win FO. He will be in high spirit going into wimbledon.

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  12. Well, well Ru-an, you have triggered some emotional reactions from your Fedfan community by being so … realistic! I found your analysis very accurate and your predictions very likely to reflect what is going to happen. That’s exactly what I would bet my money on, Nadal winning the final against Djokovic. It’s difficult to see anybody prevent Nadal from winning this GS, unless he gets injured in the process. But unexpected things happen, who would have predicted a first round loss of Serena Williams for example? So let’s hope for some upsets, and let’s hope that our man is not going to be the victim of such an upset. But really, the expectations which are building up in the comment sections of your blogs regarding the future achievements of Federer are, well, underestimating a bit the level of those players that are out there to prevent Federer from winning more slams.

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    Ru-an Reply:

    Hi Chris, was waiting for your comment. I enjoy them because we are both realistic guys and mostly agree. Nadal has always been Roger’s nemesis. It is what it is. But it doesn’t mean it’s such a bad thing. He inspired Roger to improve and made things interesting. Also you don’t need to be the best in history on every surface to be the GOAT. In fact that is impossible. If Roger is not the GOAT, is it Laver then? Was Laver better than Nadal on clay? Absolutely not. I don’t know much about Laver but I doubt he was as good as Roger on clay.

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    Chris Reply:

    Which one is the best fruit, the apple, the cherry, the pineapple or the banana? Or another one? You’ll find supporters for each of them to say that ‘their’ fruit is the best one… I believe that Roger Federer has established some records that will be pretty much impossible to break. The total GS won is not one of them, there will be a player someday to win more GS that Roger. Does that automatically mean that this player who will break the record is the better player than Roger? I don’t think so. Roger Federer has achieved incredible things on the tennis courts. Others as well have achieved incredible things. Let’s just enjoy them all. For me Roger Federer is the Greatest Player I have ever seen, for the joy and inspiration I take from his victories. For others its Nadal, Djokovic, Murray, actually each of those guys have their die hard fans. And that is good so, it would be boring otherwise. Actually I am happy that Nadal is out there, it gives me somebody I can truly dislike in contrast to RF. And I also picked my personal GOAT blogger ;-)

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  13. Agree, Dippy, after two rounds, not impressive at all. I could barely summon the patience to watch the 3rd and 4th sets – so sluggish and uninterested. If he doesn’t bring it on by 3rd or 4th round, I don’t think he can get by Berdych who looks primed to meet him there. Not saying he has to bring his A game but he’s gotta raise his game. I hope he is just pacing himself. I think too that he should grab every opportunity and should just push himself to get to the finals (especially now that his draw has opened up so well) but I’m afraid judging from the two rounds, he seems to be saving himself for Wimbledon and Olympics. Not sure if this putting all your eggs in the same basket is the wisest decision. But he is older and he knows he is physically limited. Let’s just hope and pray that the battles he picks to fight will be fought well and victoriously. In the meantime, the best I can do as a fan is to continue to hope and stay positive knowing anything can happen. Just look at Serena! Now, who would have thought??!!!

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  14. Bonjour,
    Vous êtes très pessimist mon cher I think you need to drink more fluids. Now that you spoiled the surprize and revealed that mr. Nadal will win FO untroubled could we please start discussing about Wimbledon ? Merci beaucoup!

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    Ru-an Reply:

    Haha well I have been sick of late so fluids won’t be a bad idea. I don’t think I’m pessimistic though. I think I’m being optimistic but people don’t see it. And yes we can discuss Wimbledon. Roger will make the final or win it.

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    feddybear Reply:

    if it was up to you, would you trade W for RG?
    i would
    really dont want to see RN biting another trophy like some retard or ND celebrating while tearing down all his clothes and dancing naked on court.

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    Ru-an Reply:

    If I had to choose between RG and Wimby? I’d take a seventh Wimby. Screw RG. It’s the worst slam and Roger has won it.

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