More great news for all Fedfanatics! Simon Reed, the most successful jinxer in the history of the world, has gone and written off Federer for the US Open again this year. Actually he hasn’t said flat out that Roger won’t win the US Open, but hinted at it in subtle ways. So Roger might have some work left to do yet. But by saying that Nadal is the favorite, he has pretty much written Roger off. Again. It has been clear for a while that Simon Reed does not want Federer to win slams. This is no doubt because Federer has hurt him deeply by denying his hero Murray two slam titles already. I mean you gotta feel for the guy. He always gets his predictions wrong and he always ends up on the losing end. On Internet forums he has become the ultimate joke. Whenever he makes a prediction everyone automatically assumes the player he favored is doomed.
In this case it is Rafa. I am not surprised he picked Rafa because I have already stated that I think Rafa will find winning the US Open tough going. I’m not writing him off, but if you look at his form in Toronto and Cincy it did not convince me that this year will be any different for Rafa than previous years. He played pretty well in Toronto, but then got routined by Murray. In Cincy his form was almost embarrassing. He was match point down against Benneteau of all people and then lost to Baghdatis in the quarters. The only positive from that is that he would have gotten more rest for his fragile knees, but it hardly makes him the favorite like Reed says. I mean what does Reed base these predictions on? That is the big question. It is because he makes these wild predictions based on nothing that he so frequently gets it wrong.
The last prediction that I remember him making is that Cilic would win a slam this year, based on the fact that he beat his hero Murray at the US Open last year. I’m sorry Simon, but it just isn’t that simple. People don’t become slam favorites when they beat someone who has never won a slam themselves. They become slam favorites when they beat Federer and Nadal in slams, and probably both at that. This is exactly what Del Potro had to do to win the US Open last year. Cilic on the other hand has been the major disappointment of 2010. Personally I don’t believe in jinxing, but Simon Reed gets it wrong so often and so consistently that it is hard to remain a skeptic. I feel sorry for Rafa that Reed has picked him as the favorite. That surely can’t be a good sign for him. He may even lose before the semi-finals now.
Roger at Arthur Ashe kids day (Source)
Consider the following statements by Reed:
I also believe that if Rafa beats Murray then he will go on and win the tournament because I don’t think that at this stage of his career Roger is as good a player as Rafa.
But then you have the likes of Jurgen Melzer who has played some good stuff lately; you have Marin Cilic; you have someone like Robin Soderling in the quarters; then probably Novak Djokovic in the semis.
I’m sure he(Roger) would rather play Murray there than Rafa, and likewise I know Murray would fancy his chances more against Roger than Rafa. That is one way of showing why Nadal is the favourite.
Murray doesn’t rate Federer as highly as Nadal.
I’ve no doubt that all the Federer fans will be reading this and saying: “You’ve always underestimated Federer and he has always proved you wrong” – and maybe he is going to do that again, but I have not seen any signs that would make me tip him in the lead-up to this event.
Maybe Roger is not as good as Rafa if you look at results during the summer. Yet Roger totally outperformed Rafa in Toronto and Cincy, which according to Reed, is much more important events to Rafa than Roger. What happens if Roger finds the form that saw him won the Australian Open again and cruises to another US Open title, while Rafa disappoints? Who is the better player then? Reed totally fails to take into account surfaces and history. Rafa has never been past the semis in New York while Roger has won it five times and been in a final. You can’t just make Rafa the favorite for the US Open just because he won the French and Wimbledon. He has done that before and lost in the semi’s of the US Open.
Funny that Reed thinks Roger has such a tough draw, mentioning Melzer, Cilic, Soderling and Djokovic. The only one of those Roger has something to fear from is Soderling, who he lost to at the French Open. But clay is Soderling’s best surface while it’s Roger worst. Melzer and Cilic is no threat at all if Roger plays even close to his best. As far as Djokovic goes, Roger has played him three times at the US Open and only ever lost one set.
Reed’s third statements that I’ve listed is probably the most far-fetched. The first part may be accurate that Roger would rather play Murray, although we can’t be sure. It would be very rewarding to beat Rafa in the final of a tournament where the surface favors Roger. The rest of the statement is just ridiculous though. Why would Murray fancy his chances more against Roger than Rafa? That makes no sense. For one Murray has never beaten Roger at a slam, while he has beaten Rafa in twice in hard court slams and lost only once in a tough five set match. Clearly he has a much better chance against Rafa. And then he goes on to rationalize that Rafa is the favorite through this argument. Ha!
If anyone should rate Federer higher than Nadal, it is Murray. Murray has never beaten Roger in a slam while he already did so twice against Nadal.
Again the final statement is just absurd and really underscores Reed’s madness. You would have thought that after all the times Roger has proved him wrong and embarrassed him, he would have learned his lesson. But no, he can’t see a reason to tip Federer as the favorite. So what about the fact that he has won five of the last six US Opens, and that he comes into the event as the most in form player? But according to Reed none of that means anything.
All of this is good news, because once again this will give Roger the chance to prove this lunatic wrong and give me a lot of satisfaction in the process. Of course I was being humorous in the title of my post. It’s not a done deal. But lets just call this Roger’s lucky charm. I think that is really what Reed has become, because he always takes out Roger’s competition by jinxing them. Roger certainly falls under Simon Reed’s abounding grace. Not that he needs it. I already feel very good about Roger’s chances in New York, but this has all but sealed the deal for me.
OOP: Roger will play tomorrow evening against Brian Dabul, who he has never faced before. http://www.usopen.org/en_US/scores/schedule/index.html?promo=subnav
Ps. Roger got re-elected as ATP player council president. Read all about it HERE.
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