Federer WILL Win More Majors

Thanks to a long time reader of mine who haven’t posted a comment here before, I have realized the trap of negativity I have fallen in. As people we tend to project our flaws upon those around us, and I think that is what I have done with Roger. I have gone through a rough time in my own life and I have lost hope for a better life. It seems this blog is more personal to me then I had thought. I have written Roger off to a certain extent because that is what I have tended to do to myself of late. I didn’t do this is the past. I have always been pretty positive about Roger’s aging process as a tennis player. It is just that this had been a tough start to the year for me(and Roger) and it has started to affect my view of Roger’s career. After his latest loss I lost hope because of the way in which he lost. There was no self belief.

It is as if he lost that match before he stepped on court. And it wasn’t the first time that has happened. But thanks to some faithful Fedfans I have seen that this is all just my projection, and it has nothing to do with Roger’s tennis. It doesn’t appear to be obvious, because there is a lot of evidence that Roger may indeed be in a lot of trouble. But at closer inspection it is not all that doom and gloom. There is still a lot to play for. Roger is still just 29 and he is not done quite yet. I have always had the number 18 in my head when it comes to slam wins for Roger, and why can that not be possible? Sampras was written off when he was on 13 slams and he won the US Open in dominant fashion after that. Roger has already won 2 more slams then Sampras. Why can’t he add two more slams in the latter part of his career?

FedCS1 Pictures, Images and Photos

Sure Djokovic is on an amazing run, but that has got to come to an end. Nadal have been injury prone in the past. It would be a big mistake for Roger to give up now, just because he has had some bad losses to his main rivals. You have to take into account that those losses were all on slow hard court and the best of three sets. Roger is still better in the five set format, especially on the faster courts of Wimbledon and the US Open. And besides, if Sampras could regain his dominant form of the past in a slam, then Roger can do the same. Sampras was in the zone during that US Open and played what was according to him the best match of his career in the final against Agassi. Roger could have slams in him left where he plays at his peak and dominates whoever is in front of him. It is not out of the question.

It happened for instance at the 2010 Oz Open. It happened at the Masters Cup last year as well. We as fans will just have to be more patient. Roger won’t have those kind of performances day in and day out anymore, but it will come as long as he believes and puts in the hard yards. Like a reader of mine said, an athlete knows their body and they will know when to call it a day. It is something instinctive. And until that day comes for Roger, which doesn’t seem like it will be any time soon, we will just have to stand by him and support him the best we can. It is an adjustment for us because of his dominance in the past, but if you think about it, he is still doing better than 99% of the tour. I think from here on we will have to get used to Roger losing on a fairly regular basis to some of his main rivals, but it will be worth waiting for that special occasion when he dominates the opposition like in his heyday.

To sum up, I think Roger can add one more slam in the next two years and then one more after he turns 31. That will get him to that magic number of 18, which will likely also put him out of the reach of Nadal. I know now I will fully support Roger until he wins 18 slams. This was nothing but a small hiccup ;-)

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28 Comments

  1. Good post Ru-an. All your other “negative” posts are also good. I don’t see them as negative per se and given what you’ve been through, you have only been very truthful and expressing all your feelings. Those negative posts have to be written. No regrets. That is what I like about you, Ru-an. You don’t give half measures – you say it as it is and when you feel you may have been wrong, you have great humility and courage to admit it. This is why yours is a compelling blog. Btw, have your eyes healed completely? Yeah, at this point in Rog’s career all we fans need to do and I suppose must do, is to support him, stay hopeful and enjoy every match he plays. I share Neil’s point of view which is very realistic and it is very hard to watch Rog’s matches nowadays. On the other hand, I also agree with Steve that the Maestro still believes (whether it is denial or just don’t know when to call it a day or deep down self-belief, we still don’t know yet at this point) he can do some more and it will be worth all the hard waiting and heartache if he does come up with an answer to the slug machines. Whatever we fans or readers feel or want to express, I hope we all stay and remain friends here forever until Rog retires! (Good that you are staying, Ines! You and your unique way of expressing yourself is one in a million) We must all bear in mind that Rog is the reason for this blog, Rog is the reason why we can gather here; win or lose. We must love and support the maestro much as we are also free to criticise his attitude and play. Meanwhile we wait for the magical 18. If it doesn’t happen, fine. It will be very frustrating, painful but we will be able to take it, because we have each other here in this blog – we can all scream and cry together for lost hopes and dreams! LOL! Im consoled that Rog’s history will not suffer for lack of 18. It’s when a player hangs up his racket that he will be truly honoured and respected for who he is and what he has brought to the game. What Rog has done, no one would have ever foreseen it. We fans must be very secure about Rog’s place in history. When we are secure, we will enjoy him more. And don’t forget what Rog must be suffering now mentally and emotionally with all these losses and media scrutiny. If he is ready to go, it is so much less painful but he is not ready yet which makes it harder and more painful and at the end of the day, much as it pains me to watch him, I kowtow to this man who has the guts to keep playing despite being beaten left, right and centre and still can hold his head up high! Onwards and upwards, Rog!

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    Ru-an Reply:

    Thanks Veronica your comments are always much appreciated ;-)

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  2. Ruan to me seems like Roger himself,at times, being optimistic that his peak years may still come and,at other times, being pessimistic to the extent that Roger had better hung the racket so that the pain of watching him lose day in and day out is over.There were so much speculation about the chance of Roger being almost nil of winning the Miami title before the match started because slowness of the court and the high bounce had been thought of as being the killer for Roger and yet after his loss to Nadal there were so much vents of frustation for his loss. Such short-sighted temper and a lot of expectation of many Rogerfans is not a positive thing and is discouraging for Roger. After all who is a better judge in the capability of Roger than Roger himself and he has repeatedly said that he may still dominate on his good day. Even if he cannot do it I shall not complain because I have less expectation and more appreciation for whatever he has accomplished so far.

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  3. Hi Ruan

    Don’t believe I’ve posted here before, now seems as good a time as any.

    Always admired your faith in your guy and glad to see that you’re back on course, after a small niggle of doubt ;-)

    I’ve just posted something very similar – Feds beating 90% of the competition outside of Rafa and Nole. Whilst its probable that those two will continue to have more wins over him than he will over them, the idea that he can *never* beat them is ludicrous.

    Im with you on Slams too…of course Fed is in his twilight, but he still benefits from natural skill which places him in contention of winning any event he enters. Why shouldn’t that manifest itself as one, or even two Slams?

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  4. Ruan, you are being a bit hard on yourself. I think your comments have been fair and well-thought out, even though it’s clearly been painful for you to see Roger lose. If there has been any ‘projection’ going on it has been just as much the wishful thinking of those fans who don’t want to believe that Roger is having any problems with his game, or that those problems will simply go away – because he is Roger. Well, the fact of the matter is that we are discussing this on your site because Roger does have problems with his game. He is being beaten by Nadal and Djokovic and he seems to have no answers, and he is consequently not winning the big tournaments. That’s not the Roger Federer we are used to seeing.
    .
    The question comes down to not whether Roger’s game has struck a rough patch but will it continue into further decline. If you are optimistic you may think that he will find form again as the other top players, for whatever reason, lose some of their’s. That is possible. On the other hand, you might take the view that the relative decline in Roger’s game is irreversible, because he is past his prime as a professional tennis player, and that, for a variety of reasons, the game has changed too much for him to now beat the top players. That, too, is possible. We can hope for the former but should not be too surprised if it is the latter. I guess we can only see it play out. (And I wouldn’t be too worried about what Roger thinks of what people are saying – here or elsewhere; it’s his own opinion that counts.)

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    Ru-an Reply:

    Well i take the mid way Neil. Like i said, Roger will have his fair amount of losses to his main rivals from here on, but then there will be the times when he breaks through and takes out everyone in his path. You cant really hope for more at this stage of his career either.

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  5. Hi Ru-an, thanks for all the fantastic post all these years, positive or negative. I enjoyed them all all the same. Perhaps it was because we all share the same love, hope and expectation toward Roger.
    It was only natural that your posts fluctuate according to you mood and believe lately. So don’t worry, keep them coming. Your blog is my default go to page everyday, still.
    On Roger, your latest post is spot on, imho. I have already adjusted my expectation since late last year, accepting the fact that decline in sports is a fact of life, it happens to all greats, including to Roger. But I still truly believe there’ll be one or two more slams left in him, so I will keep watching and supporting. I would say the day when everything just clicked, the day we witness he win another slam, the emotional satisfaction would not be any less than seeing Roger dominates during his peak. It’s like witnessing him defy critics, cynism, age, youth, etc. to scale another height, trust me, the satisfaction as a fedfan will be enormous!
    I will keep my faith and support to Roger for that day to arrive, no matter how many loses it takes. And I am extremely glad to read his interview and see that there are still fire burning within him.
    On a more personal level, I’d continue praying for you and hoping that you would slowly find you way out of your current predicament and find hope and optimism along the way. All the very best, my dear friend!

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    Ru-an Reply:

    Thanks onefly ;-)

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  6. Great stuff, Ru-an. I strongly agree – both with adjusting our perspective and accepting some tough losses to key rivals along the way but also with a justified hope that there is more greatness left in our man, much like the flashes in London and AO 2010.

    Btw, let me just say that I will be shocked if Rafa (who I quite admire and would be a bigger fan of if not for Fed) gets more than 14 majors. People have been making silly projections based on his age, without factoring in that Rafa simply came into his prime much earlier than others (such as Fed) and will likely burn out much earlier as well. Very few players in the Open Era have won slams over longer stretches than 7-8 years (basically, only Connors and Agassi, both with a few years’ break in between) and I think Rafa’s run will be two more years at most. During which he will likely get 2 more Frenchs, 1 more Wimby and perhaps 1 more AO, coming to 13. Throw in one final glory run at FO or Wimby to tie Sampras’ 14 and that’s the max.

    Fed’s 16 is under no serious threat – 18 would be just untouchable.

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    Ru-an Reply:

    Thanks Nelson. Its hard for me to put a number on the amount of slams Nadal will win. I have written him off in the past and he has surprised me every time. I think 13-14 majors is a fair number for him, but he looks pretty determined to break Rogers record as well. I will certainly not put it beyond him. The way he plays suggests that he cant keep it up much longer, but he is still going strong. Having said that, i wouldnt be surprised if injuries keep plaguing him, making it hard for him to catch up with Roger.

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  7. Thank you Ru-en,
    for your post today,some times you have to be hard on your-self to get the wake up call if you no what I mean.I enjoyed reading all the letters from the (Roger,s fan) I also picked the magic number (18) and Roger will reach that number one day.I have watched Roger since he was a teenager and he brought tennis back to its glory win or lose its a pleasure to watch him, sure he has had me sitting on the edge of my seat in frustration at times (but that,s the excitement of the game is it not.Agasie and Borg were another one of my favorites to watch.
    Happy to hear you are feeling much better Ru-en.ENJOY.

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  8. Hi Ruan, been following you blog for a long time. I just wanted to ask you, isn’t is better if Roger just employs his slice backhand against Rafa and Djokovic on clay. That drive backhand of his is under real pressure and his unforced keep on piling up against the(as of now) top two. I still firmly believe that Roger will win more slams

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    Ru-an Reply:

    Im not sure manu, his slice backhand may or may not help him on clay. It means he has some more variety on clay because it is a slower surface and he has more time to hit that shot. Its not as easy for players to hit winners off it either, so it may be more effective. He could also use the drop shot more effectively on clay.

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    Nelson Goodman Reply:

    I think Fed’s slice can be quite effective on clay except one for circumstance: against Rafa he’ll have to hit it down the line, to Nadal’s backhand, because the cross-court to his forehand will be a much easier set-up for an aggressive/winning shot by Nadal.

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  9. Thank you for your continued hard work on this blog Ru-an. I hope your spirits are raised soon and that you start to become more positive about life. Roger will be fine- win or lose he is still the GOAT now and he will always be a consideration for the GOAT debate. Not bad for a kid from Basel whose career goal was to one day be world number 1 and win Wimbledon (once!)

    I am looking forward to seeing the magician play on the clay

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  10. Either he will or he won’t, as he said in his interview. Only time will tell. I think he can reach the mark of 20 which he mentioned before. One major a year for the next four years is not an unrealistic aim for him.

    As Nelson and Jim suggested, the apparent effortlessness with which Federer dominated fooled people into thinking that others could dominate with equal ease.

    Since the 2008 Wimbledon final, when Federer was declared to be finished and the tennis crown was supposedly passed irrevocably to Nadal, inaugurating a new era, Federer (ostensibly over the hill and in terminal decline), has won four majors. In that same span, Nadal (five years younger and presumably at the peak of his powers), has won–four majors, the same number. So this isn’t a new era; so far, it’s been a transitional period at best.

    Besides Federer, only Nadal has proven able to win multiple Grand Slam titles in a season and be #1. But the last time he entered the French Open as the world #1 and defending champ of three of the four majors, he lost and didn’t win a title of any kind for nearly a year.

    He had to pay a very heavy price just to come close to Federer’s results. Given that pattern, and that he’s already had injury issues this season, I wouldn’t bet on Nadal repeating his 2010 performance this year.

    Federer’s efficient and versatile game allows him to sustain an extremely high level of performance year-round on all surfaces without putting too much strain on his body. If he has a bad day in a tournament he has so many options in his game that he can usually come up with a workaround.

    He has a very sound and healthy mentality, so he can deal well with the daily grind of travel, practice, media, sponsor commitments, etc.

    Others will tire, become injured, or burn out mentally trying to sustain a consistently high level throughout the season. Or the pressure of being the favorite will get to them. Or they’ll get worn out by the stress of the daily grind. Or they’ll have a bad day against a hot player, get knocked out, and lose confidence and momentum. Or all of the above at once.

    Federer dealt with these obstacles with apparent effortlessness. But they’ve proven much thornier for others to negotiate, and I think that will become clearer as time goes on and more players attempt to duplicate his achievements.

    Even now, I think Federer will be able to consistently continue performing at a high level throughout each season, compared to younger rivals whose performance fluctuates more. This may well be enough to get him the #1 ranking and dominate for long stretches, if not necessarily to the extent that he did in 2004-07.

    I’ve been watching him lose important matches for three years now. It’s not pleasant, but I don’t see the point in fretting about losses to the exclusion of all else. The wins are what matter, and there will be plenty of them still to come, even if not as many as in earlier days.

    Ru-an, best wishes for your continued recovery.

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    Ru-an Reply:

    Thanks Steve and thanks for your comments ;-)

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  11. Hi Ru-an,
    Coming to your blog is always a pleasure for me. Great minds come together with their thoughts, opinions, predictions which makes “Ru-ans Federer Blog” the best of reading. Thanks for being here. We all share one interest which is Roger’s success in tennis, for it to come for a few more years. He will always be Nr. 1 to me, he is the Gentleman of Tennis.
    Wishing you good health, Ru-an.
    Kindly,
    Dolores

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    Ru-an Reply:

    Thanks Dolores yours comments is also much appreciated. Wishing you good health too ;-)

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  12. My apologies for using a derogatory term directed at the non believers of Federer. Roger hasn’t been in this predicament for a long time, and he is definately young enough to have some more runs at majors for a few years yet. Anyone over 40 knows this. 29 is YOUNG, and he will be able to turn some things around, cause he has the will to. GO FED. G

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  13. Well, well, well. The hardcourt toil has already taken the toll on Djokovic’s knees. He has withdrawn from Monte-Carlo: http://www.atpworldtour.com/News/Tennis/2011/04/15/Monte-Carlo-Djokovic-Withdraws.aspx

    This just another twist in the tale in 2011 men’s tennis. I strongly believe Roger will turn the table at some juncture though I still maintain that he has not been playing that badly. I hope the Fed-bashers all around will at least appreciate the fitness level of our “old man” of 29.

    Go Roger go!

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  14. Ru-an posts a more positive blog and Djokovic pulls out of Monte Carlo, which will push Roger up to being the number 2 seed so he won’t have to play Nadal until the final! Hurrah!

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    marron Reply:

    Only if they both get there, no? :-)

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  15. Monte Carlo draw is out:

    http://www.atpworldtour.com/posting/2011/410/mds.pdf

    I’m very happy with Fed’s draw, *because* it’s tough from the get go, which is what I think he needs to be battle-hardened when it comes the later rounds – especially given that he’s tightened his game to address the lapses and other reasons why he was sometimes failing to get to the semis and finals in tournaments in the first half of 2010.

    His according-to-ranking opponents perfectly ramp up in terms of difficulty and style to prepare him for touch clay-court tennis:
    – Kohlschreiber in 2nd (very strong – gave Delpo a big battle in IW)
    – Cilic in 3rd (enough said)
    – Almagro or Melzer in quarters
    – Ferrer or Verdasco in semis
    – Rafa in finals.

    Excellent!

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  16. Sorry, meant “*tough* clay-court tennis” not “touch clay-court tennis.” Though Fed’s touch will certainly be handy.

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