Federer Dealt Moderately Difficult Draw in Shanghai

Djokovic [1] vs Bye
Granollers vs Tipsarevic
Qualifier vs Fognini
Montanes vs Robredo [16]

Gasquet [9] vs Pospisil
Qualifier vs Monfils
Hewitt [WC] vs Seppi
Bye vs Federer [5]

Ferrer [3] vs Bye
Benneteau vs Rosol
Wu [WC] vs Mayer
Paire vs Simon [13]

Nishikori [12] vs Dimitrov
Melzer vs Dodig
Youzhny vs Andujar
Bye vs Tsonga [7]

Del Potro [6] vs Bye
Kohlschreiber vs Gong [WC] Qualifier vs Brands
Querrey vs Haas [11]

Almagro [15] vs Qualifier
Chardy vs Tomic
Lopez vs Nieminen
Bye vs Berdych [4]

Wawrinka [8] vs Bye
Hanescu vs Anderson
Zhang [WC] vs Verdasco
Qualifier vs Raonic [10]

Isner [14] vs Qualifier
Tursunov vs Berlocq
Dolgopolov vs Qualifier
Bye vs Nadal [2]



The new attire looks better than I thought and fits in nicely with my new blog colors :-)

As promised I’m back with the draw post and in the end not the worst draw Roger could have hoped for given that he is seeded 5th. He doesn’t get Ferrer in his quarter but he doesn’t get Nadal or Berdych either. He is in the weaker half of the draw, given that Nadal, Berdych, Del Potro, Raonic, and Stan are all in the bottom half. The toughest guy to deal with in the top half is Djokovic. After that it’s not so tough although Gasquet has been playing well of late. Roger gets the winner of Hewitt and Seppi in his first match, which is already pretty tough for his first match back. Hewitt of course made that good run at the US Open where he beat Del Potro, and in Beijing he beat Haas before getting bageled by Fognini. Seppi is no mug either and he would give similar competition to Hewitt. If Roger wins his first match he could face Gasquet who just made semis in Beijing.

Gasquet is on form but today against Djokovic he once again came up short in the mental department. There is no guarantee he will make 3rd round either. He could lose to Pospisil in the 1st round or to Monfils in the 2nd. Should he play Roger it will be another test for Roger. In Roger’s last match he got straight setted by Robredo so his confidence won’t be the highest it’s ever been. Having said that things have been looking better in Cincy and in his first three rounds in New York. So I hope he can build on that and at least make quarters in Shanghai. I think that should sort of be his goal. Losing to Djokovic won’t be a shame. Roger and Djokovic have not played at all this year with their last meeting being at the Masters Cup last year. They match up pretty well and their matches are always good to watch, so I wouldn’t mind that match happening.

It will be interesting to see how the bottom half pan out. Stan and Raonic are both in the running for a place in London and they ended up in the same bracket of the draw. Raonic is currently in the final of Tokyo after beating Dodig today. He plays Del Potro in the final and should he win he will be right there behind Roger, Stan, and Gasquet in the race. So both him and Stan would desperately like to get into the quarters of Shanghai. The same goes for Roger and Gasquet in the top half. If Roger makes quarters in the top half he will have achieved his main objective in Shanghai the way I see it. He opens up some space between himself and Gasquet, as well as the loser between Raonic or Stan in the race, with Basel and Paris left to play. If he loses before the quarters he will surely have to take that wild card in Vienna. Looking forward to see how it all plays out.


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  1. Pretty happy with the draw, just got to take it one match at a time. If he gets to Djokovic I expect it to be a very competitive match like it was in 2010.


  2. He very badly needs matches right now. At this point, winning a couple rounds would be fantastic.

    It’s been impossible to tell whether this year was a mental blip combined with various issues (injury, schedule changes, lack of a winter break) or whether he has lost more speed due to age. Seems like he’s sticking with the old racket for now after the abortive experiment with the bigger racket head. But I don’t know what that portends. Perhaps he will make more changes during the off-season.


  3. Ruan,

    Some positive news, Djokovic beat Nadal in straight sets in Bejing and Del Potro beat Raonic in Tokyo in straights sets, as well. Praying for some good results for Federer.

    Hope life is treating well. Thanks for all your wonderful analysis.


    Ru-an Reply:

    Thanks Gemma. Hope you are doing well too. I saw the results. In fact I watched Djokodal and was very happy with the result. And of course Del Potro beating Raonic helps Roger a little in the race to London.


  4. Just a smiling greeting to you, Ru-an. Know you must be pleased, too. The trophy received a kiss instead of a dent! Hope to read your analysis on the match. Thanks much. Onto Shanghai wishing Roger well.


    Ru-an Reply:

    Indeed I am Dolores :-) I will make an analysis about the match later today on my other blog where it belongs so look for it there.


  5. Hi Ru-an. Am very glad that Fed is back in action but am surprised to hear that he’s still not willing to make the racket transition. What do you think he’s waiting for? This was a nice schedule break to get it done, no??? Thank you!!


    Ru-an Reply:

    Yes I don’t understand it myself Eric. When he decided to use the old racquet at the USO I thought this is exactly what will happen. The new racquet has become just a short experiment now that failed, and it is hard to see him go back to it again now. It’s a shame.


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