Greetings. I’m still writing exams but Murray won Vienna last week as expected while Cilic won Basel, defeating Tsonga and Nishikori in the finals respectively.
Murray also had a walkover in the semis against Ferrer which is good fortune for him as his freshness will be a big question this week in Paris in his bid to overtake Djokovic in the rankings.
For him to do that by next Monday he has to win the title and Djokovic must lose before the final of Paris or Murray must make the final and Djokovic must lose before the semis, as you can see below by clicking the image.
It’s doable but I don’t think Murray will win Paris. As for Djokovic, he is struggling with his confidence right now and I don’t think he is winning the title either. He has won it the last three years but he seems completely burned out.
He has a tough draw too with Muller who just made semis in Basel and lost in the deciding set breaker to Nishikori. Then he likely gets Dimitrov and then Cilic or Goffin. In the semis, he could get Stan or Thiem.
Murray will play Verdasco in the first round who won today and can be dangerous. He can also play Pouille in the third round which I hope for. His quarterfinal doesn’t look very challenging and in the semis, he can play Raonic os Nishikori.
He’s got a better draw than Djokovic but we will see how it goes after the week in Vienna. That walkover against Ferrer sure was fortunate to give him some much-needed rest.
This race to number one is now getting very interesting and one feels that Djokovic should clearly end the year number one after winning two slams, making the final of another, and winning four Masters titles already.
That said, Murray did have a very consistent year and won the Olympics as well. And there is still the World Tour Finals left which is another big event. Djokovic is currently struggling with his confidence which makes things tough for him but he has to somehow try to make at least semis in Paris and hope Murray loses early.
Murray has a real shot at this but he can’t afford to lose early in Paris. Neither can Djokovic. A very interesting week ahead!
To sum up: Murray still has 275 Davis Cup points that must come off before the year end so for him to end the year number one he has to make 691 points more than Djokovic at Paris and London.