Basel Draw – Federer and Nadal in Opposite Halves

Members of the big four are in action again this week in Basel namely Federer and Nadal. They are not in the same half of the draw however and I guess as usual we won’t see them play which hasn’t happened for almost two years now. It’s not entirely out of the question that they can meet in the final, but the draw has made that difficult. I guess Brennwald didn’t want Federer to meet Nadal where he has the best chance of still beating Nadal.

The rivalry has really turned into a nightmare for Federer since 2012 because he lost the last five meetings with Nadal including losses at Cincinnati and the World Tour Finals, but you’d figure at least with the way he has played this year he still had a shot in Basel of beating Nadal. But with Nadal back on the upswing it looks like Federer is back on the downswing. The signs have already been there is Asia for both.

Federer had another big year, but he has nothing bigger than Cincinnati to show for it. If Nadal does happen to make the final in Basel I think he’d have a shot of beating Federer, but he has a long way to go. For one thing, he plays Rosol tomorrow in the first round who he lost to at Wimbledon of course. He is not the greatest indoor players so who knows who he can lose to. He probably won’t be so bad as to lose to Dimitrov, but he could play Cilic in the quarters who just won Moscow.

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And should he survive that he will probably play Stan. He has improved a lot in Asia but indoors is still an issue for him so you could still see Federer doing well in Basel, Paris, and London while Nadal struggles. I don’t foresee Federer defeating Djokovic though so he has to make sure that he at least wins Basel to at least win one title in his favorite indoor season. Federer’s draw is easy too. He won’t be troubled until the final unless he is truly burned out.

I’m going to assume he makes the final and if he faces Stan or Nadal there I guess he could lose. Or maybe if Cilic is in the zone. Otherwise, he should win the title. It should be a pretty interesting week anyway. I see Stan is playing Karlovic first round and Nadal has Cilic so both of them has tough draws while Federer has it easy. So really he will have no excuse if he doesn’t win this title.

  • This Passing Week

In the passing week Ferrer, Cilic, and Berdych won titles in Vienna, Moscow, and Stockholm respectively so congrats to them. Especially to Ferrer who still hasn’t qualified for London but by winning the only ATP 500 event this week he pretty much guaranteed his spot. He is in eighth place and with Nishikori ahead of him in seventh are the two players who have not booked their spots yet, but it is surely just a question of time.

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London is going to be interesting especially if Djokovic, Federer, and Nadal all land in the same group. I hope at least Federer and Nadal are in the same group. But I’m not betting on it. Next week is also Paris where Djokovic and Murray will be back so that promises to be another big one. I don’t think Federer can get back to #2 if he wins Basel this week, but I’m sure he can still in Paris in which case he can still avoid being in the same group as Djokovic in London.

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The is in your court.

Posted in ATP 500, Basel, Uncategorized.

10 Comments

  1. I am longing for Federer-Nadal final. There is no better place for that than Basel. It would be interesting to see whether Federer will have this “lamb for slaughter” look, or it will be any different this year. Without psychology, I would consider Federer to be a favourite, but, taking all into consideration, my money is on Nadal.

    [Reply]

    Ru-an Reply:

    Yes, would be very interesting indeed, George. Hoping for it too. Imagine Nadal defeating Federer in Basel. Brenwald for one I assume would be delighted. But still unlikely to happen I think given their ability to avoid each other of late.

    [Reply]

    George Reply:

    I think that Federer will play with extra-pressure in Basel knowing that Nadal might wait for him at the end of the road. I don’t think that Nadal has the same problem, but he will play in conditions that are not perfect for him (so he can lose). If Nadal lose early I think nobody will stop Federer. If not, it could be “should I win and face Nadal?” (subconsciously).

    [Reply]

    Ru-an Reply:

    Good observations, George. I agree. The deeper Nadal goes the more it will weigh on Federer’s sub-conscious. But the fact that this is Basel and that Nadal is on the other side of the draw helps him. If Nadal shows good form and goes deep it should be interesting to see what happens to Federer. Federer has a joke draw until the SF so let’s see what happens in the SF if Nadal is still in the draw. Maybe Isner or Anderson can make life difficult for him.

    [Reply]

    George Reply:

    I put some small money that I am prepared to lose on Kukushkin against Federer as it is 1:21.

    [Reply]

    Ru-an Reply:

    Ha. Yeah that is very unlikely to happen, and I don’t endorse gambling.

    [Reply]

    George Reply:

    Good. I start worrying that we agree in everything. I wouldn’t call this gambling but rather applied tennis knowledge. In theory, pundits should be able to earn good money by predicting who will win. I won money when Brands beat Federer, but it was only 1:7. I think that Kukushkin is more around something like that and not 1:21.

    [Reply]

    Ru-an Reply:

    Haha yes, it’s good to disagree sometimes. If you are making money with your predictions then I’m happy for you. Just saying I don’t believe in it. I routinely get offered money for advertising gambling sites on my blog, and although I hardly make any money at all with my blog I refuse them every time.

    [Reply]

    George Reply:

    As you already know I lost a bet against Federer, but I am still happy with the outcome. We are one step closer to Federer-Nadal final. Will imperious Federer beat slightly less imperious Nadal on the surface that looks pretty fast and in front of the home crowd?

    [Reply]

    Ru-an Reply:

    That’s why I don’t believe in betting. You can have all the tennis knowledge in the world and it won’t help you to negate the unpredictability of tennis and life. There is a reason these bookies make money. And loads of it. They won’t be in it if they weren’t winning. Why would I help them? I think what they are doing is unethical and will come back to haunt them. You don’t get without giving. They are not giving. They are taking advantage of gambling addicts and ignorant people.

    Not saying that’s you. I already said if you are winning and enjoying it then I am happy for you. Just be careful.

    The Fedal situation is interesting. I think Nadal’s win over Rosol will boost his confidence and he could go all the way to the final. But we are not there yet so I wouldn’t worry now about what might happen if they meet.

    [Reply]

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