Australian Open 2013 Draw

(1) DJOKOVIC, Novak [SRB] vs. MATHIEU, Paul-Henri [FRA]
HARRISON, Ryan [USA] vs. GIRALDO, Santiago [COL] 
QUALIFIER vs. LOPEZ, Feliciano [ESP]
TROICKI, Viktor [SRB] vs. (31) STEPANEK, Radek [CZE]

(20) QUERREY, Sam [USA] vs. QUALIFIER 
QUALIFIER vs. BAKER, Brian [USA]
KAMKE, Tobias [GER] vs. CIPOLLA, Flavio [ITA]
QUALIFIER vs. (15) WAWRINKA, Stanislas [SUI]

(11) MONACO, Juan [ARG] vs. KUZNETSOV, Andrey [RUS] 
ANDERSON, Kevin [RSA] vs. LORENZI, Paolo [ITA]
MALISSE, Xavier [BEL] vs. ANDUJAR, Pablo [ESP]
GOFFIN, David [BEL] vs. (22) VERDASCO, Fernando [ESP]

(26) MELZER, Jurgen [AUT] vs. KUKUSHKIN, Mikhail [KAZ] 
FOGNINI, Fabio [ITA] vs. BAUTISTA AGUT, Roberto [ESP]
QUALIFIER vs. RUFIN, Guillaume [FRA]
RUSSELL, Michael [USA] vs. (5) BERDYCH, Tomas [CZE]

Quarter 2

(4) FERRER, David [ESP] vs. ROCHUS, Olivier [BEL]
KARLOVIC, Ivo [CRO] vs. QUALIFIER 
WC: MILLMAN, John [AUS] vs. ITO, Tatsuma [JPN]
RAMOS, Albert [ESP] vs. (28) BAGHDATIS, Marcos [CYP]

(23) YOUZHNY, Mikhail [RUS] vs. EBDEN, Matthew [AUS] 
DONSKOY, Evgeny [RUS] vs. UNGUR, Adrian [ROU]
QUALIFIER vs. BERLOCQ, Carlos [ARG]
HANESCU, Victor [ROU] vs. (16) NISHIKORI, Kei [JPN]

(10) ALMAGRO, Nicolas [ESP] vs. QUALIFIER 
GIMENO-TRAVER, Daniel [ESP] vs. KUBOT, Lukasz [POL]
PHAU, Bjorn [GER] vs. DEVVARMAN, Somdev [IND]
BOLELLI, Simone [ITA] vs. (24) JANOWICZ, Jerzy [POL]

(32) BENNETEAU, Julien [FRA] vs. DIMITROV, Grigor [BUL] 
ROGER-VASSELIN, Edouard [FRA] vs. QUALIFIER
LACKO, Lukas [SVK] vs. MULLER, Gilles [LUX]
HEWITT, Lleyton [AUS] vs. (8) TIPSAREVIC, Janko [SRB]

Quarter 3

(6) DEL POTRO, Juan Martin [ARG] vs. QUALIFIER
BEDENE, Aljaz [SLO] vs. BECKER, Benjamin [GER]
CHARDY, Jeremy [FRA] vs. QUALIFIER
ZEMLJA, Grega [SLO] vs. (30) GRANOLLERS, Marcel [ESP]

(21) SEPPI, Andreas [ITA] vs. ZEBALLOS, Horacio [ARG] 
SIJSLING, Igor [NED] vs. ISTOMIN, Denis [UZB] 
GARCIA-LOPEZ, Guillermo [ESP] vs. QUALIFIER
MATOSEVIC, Marinko [AUS] vs. (12) CILIC, Marin [CRO]

(14) SIMON, Gilles vs. VOLANDRI, Filippo [ITA] 
ROBREDO, Tommy [ESP] vs. LEVINE, Jesse [CAN]
LU, Yen-Hsun [TPE] vs. RAMIREZ HIDALGO, Ruben [ESP]
MONFILS, Gael [FRA] vs. (18) DOLGOPOLOV, Alexandr [UKR]

(25) MAYER, Florian vs. WC: WILLIAMS, Rhyne [USA] 
QUALIFIER vs. STAKHOVSKY, Sergiy [UKR]
SOUSA, Joao [POR] vs. WC: SMITH, John-Patrick [AUS]
HASSE, Robin [NED] vs. (3) MURRAY, Andy [GBR]

Quarter 4

(7) TSONGA, Jo-Wilfried [FRA] vs. LLODRA, Michael [FRA]
SOEDA, Go [JPN] vs. WC: SAVILLE, Luke [AUS] 
WC: DUCKWORTH, James vs. WC: MITCHELL, Benjamin [AUS]
KAVCIC, Blaz [SLO] vs. (29) BELLUCCI, Thomaz [BRA]

(19) HAAS, Tommy [GER] vs. NIEMINEN, Jarkko [FIN] 
DODIG, Ivan [CRO] vs. WC: WU, Di [CHN]
WC: OUANNA, Josselin [FRA] vs. FALLA, Alejandro [COL]
MONTANES, Albert [ESP] vs. (9) GASQUET, Richard [FRA]

(13) RAONIC, Milos [CAN] vs. HAJEK, Jan [CZE] 
QUALIFIER vs. ROSOL, Lukas [CZE]
QUALIFIER vs. PELLA, Guido [ARG]
DARCIS, Steve [BEL] vs. (17) KOHLSCHREIBER, Phillipp [GER]

(27) KLIZAN, Martin [SVK] vs. QUALIFIER 
TOMIC, Bernard vs. MAYER, Leonardo [ARG]
QUALIFIER vs. DAVYDENKO, Nikolay [RUS]
PAIRE, Benoit [FRA] vs. (2) FEDERER, Roger [SUI]

http://www.australianopen.com/en_AU/scores/draws/ms/r1s1.html

Roger having some laughs at kids tennis day before getting down to serious business…

Hey guys. Brutal day at work but I said I would make a draw post today and I like to do what I say. Veronica has already commented on my blog in a flat spin about Roger’s draw. Haha. Here is what his path to the title looks like:

Round 1: Paire – I have never seen Paire play, but he is ranked #43 in the world so he can obviously play a bit. That’s a pretty tough first round so Roger will need to be on his game from the start. No time to ease into things. It will also be good preparation for what is to come.

Round 2: Davydenko – He comes hot off making the Doha final where he was in the dominant position against Gasquet and then blew it. On a good day he is still dangerous, but Roger has a very good record against him and should be fine if he plays well.

Round 3: Tomic – Tomic just made the Sydney final where he faces a guy I played and practiced with, Kevin Anderson. I think Tomic will win. He seems confident and have made statements of late like: ‘I can be the best player ever’.  Obviously there is zero chance of that happening. He isn’t nearly talented enough and he is not mature enough either. Not yet anyway. For one thing he has no big weapons to speak of as far as his shots go. That is already enough reason that he will never be the greatest ever. He is a very cocky kid and in tennis that can be a plus. But there is a difference between confidence and arrogance. Tomic is not good enough to be as arrogant as he is. Last year he played against the 30-year old GOAT and got destroyed 6-4, 6-2, 6-2. He didn’t do much in 2012 either. I don’t see any kind of ‘changing of the guard’ in the making here. But Tomic can be a test nonetheless.

Round 4: Raonic – Another promising youngster for Roger. Raonic of course has the massive serve, which is better suited for fast courts. His game in general is better suited for fast courts, and as things stand at the moment Melbourne still counts as slow hard courts. Against a big serve like Raonic it usually comes down to one or two points in the tie break. When the surface is slow it just gives the opponent that split second extra in those moments. Just a chance for Roger to get a racquet on a return or make one more defensive play. This could be another tough test but again I like Roger 3.0’s chances.

QF: Gasquet/Tsonga – I think it will be of these two Frenchman. On their day they can no doubt be a handful, but I’d prefer them over Berdych or Del Potro any day. If Roger passes his first four rounds I think he will be confident enough to get the job done here.

SF: Murray/Del Potro – Here is starts getting really tough. Both these players are well capable of beating Roger on a good day. Roger had a very tough match with Delpo at the Olympics and lost the following two encounters. Roger won his last meeting with Murray on the other hand in London. The slower surface will count in these two player’s favor. It gives Murray a chance to run down more balls and Del Potro will have time to set up those big ground strokes. JesusFed needs to show up to advance here.

F: Djokovic – Given the draw, I think it’s pretty certain that Djokovic will be waiting in the final. We know how good he is on plexicushion and will equal Roger and Agassi at 4 Australian Open titles if he wins this year. He is the ultimate test and Goderer needs to show up if he wants to stop Djokovic from equaling him and become the Australian Open record holder himself.

Yes it is a pretty tough draw but lets look at the positives:

  1. No Berdych in his quarter.
  2. No Del Potro in his quarter.
  3. If he does make it through the draw to the semi-final stage it will give him confidence boost that he can go all the way.

Roger had a good break now and will be fresh. He hasn’t played competitively for a while though and he can’t allow that to cost him. He needs to lock into form right off the bat and dominate the opposition. He can’t show any weakness if he wants to first of all keep his quarter final streak alive, and second of all have a shot at the title. So the first objective is to play well form the start, the second is to make the quarter finals, and then he wants to raise his game. If he can put in a confident performance in the quarters and not drop more than a set, he will be in good shape for the semis. Then he needs to raise his game two more times and a record 5th Australian Open title is his. Easy right? Allez!

Not convinced? He is Roger Federer…

Posted in Uncategorized.

10 Comments

  1. Thank you Ru-an for taking the time and energy to give us a detailed assessment of the draw. Personally, I don’t think that RF 3.0 cares a lot about the draw. He wants to keep beating the youngsters, he wants to keep winning against the top players, he enjoys the challenge of spoiling the party for the others. Only Nadal has managed to become a stumble block in the draw that upset RF on a regular basis, all the others are a nice challenge he is looking forward to facing across the net. I think 2013 will be fun, there are to my knowledge no more important records to be broken, nothing to point at where you could say RF failed to achieve it. So I guess he will be more relaxed than ever, just enjoying his time by playing his favorite game. Every win, every title will become sweeter!

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  2. Pretty well put Ru-an.
    I don’t think this is too tough a draw for Roger until the semis. Of course,there are players who can do some damage but i think after a good break and after recharging his batteries(if he ever needs to do so because he rarely uses all of his energy,he just spends enough),he will be very confident and raring to prove his critics wrong once more.Lets look more closely at his potential opponents:
    R2-Davydenko
    h2h 14-2 Federer
    out of 14,11 have been straights and in the other 3 NK has managed 1 set each.
    R3-Tomic
    h2h 3-0 Federer
    Tomic has managed to get only 1 set from the 3 mathces and that one set was in 2011 DC.As you siad Tomic is a cocky kid and Roger usually shuts up cocky kids.
    R4-Raonic
    h2h 3-0 Federer
    Raonic has taken 1 set each from the 3 matches but with Roger well rested and still 3.0,he will come through in 4 sets max.
    R5-QFs-Gasguet/Tsonga
    Gasquet
    h2h 10-2 Federer
    Both those loses came in MC and Rome repectively which Roger has not in his career and clay is arguably the best chance for Gasquet to beat Fed.This is the 1st time they will be playing at the AO if they meet but Roger should come through in max 4 sets keeping in mind gasquet’s recent title at the Qatar Open
    Tsonga
    h2h 8-3 Federer
    Remember 2009 everyone.That was a massacre.
    and to make things worse for tsonga,he is coming off an injury and playing Fed,he needs to be absolutely at 100% or else he will be rolled over again.
    Sure Tsonga can bust Federer off the court like he did for the last 3 sets at Wimby’11 but with this recent injury,i doubt if he can get far enough to meet Roger.

    So ruan,even though the draw looks to be very appealing,it really is not that much difficult for Roger to keep his QF streak going and also is unbroken SF streak at the AO.its at the SF where it gets tricky for Roger.Both Murray and Delpo are very much suited to this court as Murray can extend the rallies and make Roger play that one extra ball while the ball will sit up nicely for Delpo to play his booming ground strokes.SO if Roger beats one of these two and makes the finals,he knows certainly that he will have to beat Djokovic to win the title and Djokovic on phlexicusion is very much like an alligator in water.So Roger needs to get the job done at the semis as soon as possible and get that 1 day break as the lower half semis will be completed first beilieve,so thats an advantage for Fed if he does reach the Final as to beat Djokovic on phlexicusion,he needs every little extra energy that can extend his stamina. Here’s to hoping that Roger will have a great AO 2013 and a gr8 season ahead and you ruan,i hope that you get the power to balance your work and blogging.Keep us posted
    V

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  3. I don’t want to be the bearer of more bad news, but after a few years the Australian Open has changed the days the draws play meaning Federer’s half (bottom draw) would’ve played on the monday with a semi-final being scheduled to Thursday, giving him 2 days rest before the final if he had to go five sets with Murray. However, now he will have to play the Friday semi final, giving him one day to rest up. Funny thing is the bottom half of the women’s draw is playing monday? If Fed wins this one, along with the toughest draw I’ve seen in a while, no doubt this will go down as one of the greatest wins of all time.

    Good job ru-an, I like your perspective on a tough draw, I’m sure JesusFed is due to make an appearance shortly…Oh and also I’m from Australia and I can say that we love Fed more than Tomic, a kid with alot of talent but too much arrogance. He will surely get another lesson from Master Fed

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  4. Hi Ru-an, I’m honored that you posted my comment in your earlier entry, and thanks to all for your responses. This blog is truly a labor of love and I’m glad you’re still posting in spite of being so busy.

    Regarding the draw: I don’t think it’s as bad as it’s being made out to be. There is no guarantee that he will meet all of the threats in his quarter. A couple of them will probably get knocked out before he faces them.

    Tomic is much improved but still has a long way to go to challenge the top. Beating Djokovic in what amounts to a glorified exhibition doesn’t mean he is ready for the big time. He just won his first title as you predicted, so he’ll be pretty confident, but Grand Slams are a cut above. Still he’s only lost to top players like Federer and Nadal at AO the last couple years, so he clearly plays pretty well here.

    Davydenko is a big danger, but I’m sure Federer is prepared. He knows Davydenko’s game very well, and he’s prepared to play those tough, frenetic rallies. Davydenko seemed to have some fitness problems against Gasquet in Doha (couldn’t close the match despite leading by a set and a break with chances for a double break), that might come into play in the tough, hot AO conditions. Not that Federer should be counting on that.

    Gasquet could be an interesting challenge. He needs time to unleash his backhand, which he will definitely get on these slow courts. I don’t really know how he’d play on this surface as compared to clay, though. It’s hard to predict the kind of match it would be, I think, especially if Gasquet serves well.

    If he’s fit, Haas could give Federer a very tough time–in 2006, Federer’s best year, he took Federer to five sets at AO, although that was on the green Rebound Ace surface, not the blue Plexicushion that’s used now. At his best he can really match it with Federer on any surface and on those occasions, it’s taken all of Federer’s guile and determination to come through.

    Murray is very dangerous after having broken through and won his maiden Slam. He’ll be very hungry to win on these slow hard courts, which suit his game to a T, and will be very tough for Federer to beat.

    I don’t think the big hitters are such a problem on this surface for Federer, because he has more time to return serve and work the ball during the rallies and get them off balance. It’s harder to hit through the court with sheer power–you really need great timing and footwork like Federer to play aggressively on this surface.

    Del Potro has only managed to break Federer’s serve once in the two matches they played at AO, and has never won a set, so I don’t rate the chances of an upset as being very high should they meet.

    And Federer managed to come from two sets to love down against Berdych here, so again, Federer would have a much better shot here than on a faster court.

    Safin is the only big hitter who’s taken Federer out at AO since he became #1 for the first time. He was an exceptionally gifted player with great variety and movement to complement his power. None of the current top “big men” have that same combination.

    When Federer’s lost in Melbourne, it’s almost always been to grinding baseliners like Nadal and Djokovic who can prolong the rallies with their incredible defense and induce him to make unforced errors.

    Speaking of Djokovic, I’m sure he will rip through the draw until the final. He probably won’t have to go through any marathons like he did last year against Murray and Nadal so he’ll be fresh. Federer has lost in straight sets the last two times he’s played Djokovic here, so he will have to come up with an absolute masterclass if he wants to walk away with his fifth AO title.

    Toppling the current king of slow hard courts would be a huge step towards Federer regaining the #1 ranking. Conversely, a third successive AO title would allow Djokovic a platform to begin consolidating the YE #1 ranking for a third straight year.

    C’mon Roger! Show the world what a true champion is made of!

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  5. Ruan–great to read your perspective. Two questions: (1) I know Roger hasn’t played competitive tennis but then neither has Djokovic really –he played the two exhibition type events (the rich fest and then Hopman’s cup) that noone really takes that seriously. So, the question is does Federer’s having played all those exhibition matches in South America help at all? (2) Roger has been saying that what he really needs is to practice. As former pro-player yourself, can you tell us why someone like Roger values practice so much more over competitive matches? As a recreational player (and I’m a mere 4.5 player here!), I know practice is about learning consistency and reliability on shots but is it the same for elite players like Federer? Or does he use that time to learn new tricks as it were?

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    Ru-an Reply:

    I touched on all this in my latest post Sakhi. Check it out.

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  6. Really appreciate the post, Ru-an. I just love the way you say it in last paragraph. Calm, rational, and measured optimism. Definitely has calmed me down although I still feel wretched! Lol! I like V’s and Steve’s comments too. If what Fed fan said is true; that Roger will now get only a day’s rest with the new format of playing the second semi first, what more evidence do we need that there is a conspiracy to get Roger out of the game asap?! Bottom line, Roger must avoid unnecessary 4 or 5 setters (all the early round players even before he can meet Murray have the potential to drag him to 4/5 setters) Roger’s positive H2H history with some players are not always a good indication anymore at this point in time as Roger is past his prime. And although he has won all his matches against players like Raonic, etc, they were pretty close. It’s not only just a matter of Roger can win against a certain player or not. But it’s about how he won it. No point winning in early rounds but getting exhausted in the process and don’t have much left in the second week. This is the tricky part (pacing himself properly but at the same time to win as dominantly as possible) Roger has to work out in his game. And if you look at Djoko’s draw, it makes Roger’s draw look even MORE brutal!!! Anyway, I’m bracing myself and not having expectations. However I’m still hoping and feeling that Roger would show us something in this tournament and surprise us all!!! Common Roger!!!!

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  7. Btw, Ru-an, I’m not on shut down anymore. Big fail. I’ll try do it next time away from grand slam time! Hehehe!!

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    Ru-an Reply:

    Good. Can’t have my superstar commenter shutting down during slam time! ;-)

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